Working on agression...

atnels · #1 01-31-2005, 01:56 AM

SB is Uber-Loose/Passive
UTG seems decent, fairly agressive.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, 4 folds, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

First mistake: Should I raise this? I was on the brink and ended up just calling.

Flop: (5 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (6 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, SB folds, UTG calls.

At this point, I'm giving myself about 13-14 outs here with 8 cards for the nut straight and then another 7 diamonds (not recounting the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]), then discounting the medium flush slightly. Is this raise a good idea?

River: (10 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 11 BB

Part of me wanted to call just to see what he had that he bet into me again. I was thinking that maybe he put me on a flush draw and bluffed the river, but I'd seem him call a river raise a few hands before with a medium pair so I didn't think a bluff raise would be prudent. Thoughts?

milesdyson · #2 01-31-2005, 01:59 AM

Very bad raise. You have a draw here and you limit the field. Call and let SB call.

And a river call would be terrible.

The13atman · #3 01-31-2005, 02:00 AM

Perfect. And I don't call this river either. For me, the info isn't worth $1, but that's just me.

Edit: miles is right on the turn. Oops.

atnels · #4 01-31-2005, 02:04 AM

I see your point about limiting the field but I felt that I was looking at great odds to improve here. Plus, I had been watching SB call two bets cold for the better part of an hour so I figured if they had anything there was a good chance of a call.

milesdyson · #5 01-31-2005, 02:13 AM

Let's say you have the full 15 outs. With 46 unknown cards, you're slightly worse than 2:1 to improve on the river. If SB calls every time, this raise is still slightly -EV. Since SB folds this a lot regardless of his cold-calling tendencies, it's even more -EV. Because SB can fold and you can be three bet, it's even even more -EV.

Reef · #6 01-31-2005, 02:26 AM

I think you're just getting obsessed with the idea of aggression and are going crazy with it in places it shouldn't be.

call preflop. flop raise is fine. turn raise is horrible. for the love of baby Jesus do not call the river UI

atnels · #7 01-31-2005, 02:28 AM

Please help me, because this is something I clearly don't understand.

For simplicity's sake, say I improve to the best hand 33% of the time with this draw. The turn pot is 6 BB. Let's also assume the SB folds no matter what, I fold on the river unimproved and the other player folds the river if I make my straight or flush. So if I call, 66% of the time I lose 1 BB and 33% of the time I win 8 BB. (.33)*8 + (.66)*(-1) = 1.98. If I raise, the EV doesn't change... (.33)*10 + (.66)*(-2) = 1.98. What am I doing wrong here...?

atnels · #8 01-31-2005, 02:31 AM

For the record, I would never call the river unimproved. All I was saying was a bluff raise went through my mind, but it went right back out again very quickly.

morberg · #9 01-31-2005, 03:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Please help me, because this is something I clearly don't understand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not an expert myself, but I'll give it a shot.
[ QUOTE ]

For simplicity's sake, say I improve to the best hand 33% of the time with this draw. The turn pot is 6 BB. Let's also assume the SB folds no matter what, I fold on the river unimproved and the other player folds the river if I make my straight or flush. So if I call, 66% of the time I lose 1 BB and 33% of the time I win 8 BB. (.33)*8 + (.66)*(-1) = 1.98. If I raise, the EV doesn't change... (.33)*10 + (.66)*(-2) = 1.98. What am I doing wrong here...?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't count the bets already in the pot when calculating EV. If you call the turn you lose 1 BB 66% of the time and you win 1 BB 33% of the time, i.e. .33*1-.67*1 = -.34 BB. When raising: .33*2-.67*2 = -.68 BB.

As other posters pointed out you also run the risk of being 3-bet on the river making this even worse.

Hope I got this right, otherwise please correct me.

EDIT: On second thought you should be able to use money in pot in your calculation as well, but you can't count money you put in as won. For a pot of 6 and call on turn: 7*.33 - 1*.67 = 1.64, with a raise: 8*.33 - 2*.67 = 1.3. (Which still is .34 BB worse than calling, just as in the previous calculcation. I'd go with my first line of reasoning, but either way works.)