QQ Horrible flop, bet it anyway?

Zeke · #1 01-29-2005, 12:22 AM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, CO folds, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, Button folds, BB raises, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

Do I bet this flop even with 4 to act behind me, and the very high probability I'm already drawing to 2 outs?

Aaron W. · #2 01-29-2005, 01:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Do I bet this flop even with 4 to act behind me, and the very high probability I'm already drawing to 2 outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, bet the flop. You don't know that there's a high probability that you're drawing to two outs until you've been called (unless you knew that most of the players behind you were tight... but how often does that happen?). You can safely check-fold the turn for one bet with both overcards falling and so many callers.

Joppe · #3 01-29-2005, 10:25 AM

Yes, I'm a pretty green player but I really don't understand why he should bet this flop. The propability that someone is holding a A or K is huge, isn't it? Many players would call any A and many Ks. Also, some players would call the bet even if they do not hold a K/A, so he doesn't gain a lot of information.

Does everyone think the flop bet is obvious here?

Please correct me.

Aaron W. · #4 01-29-2005, 04:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I'm a pretty green player but I really don't understand why he should bet this flop. The propability that someone is holding a A or K is huge, isn't it? Many players would call any A and many Ks. Also, some players would call the bet even if they do not hold a K/A, so he doesn't gain a lot of information.

Does everyone think the flop bet is obvious here?

[/ QUOTE ]

An alternative line is to check-fold, and check-calling as the worst of all options (do you understand why?).

In some cases, check-folding would be fine, especially if a tight player cold-calls after you. But against players who are generally loose preflop, many of them will fold when faced with an early position raise preflop and a bet into a board with both A and K out there unless they actually have something.

On the turn, you get to play some poker and figure out where to go. If lots of players called, you're likely beat and you can check-fold. If only a one or two players called, you get to try to figure out what sorts of hands they have based on the flop texture and what you know about them.

I hope others would give their input, too.

Redd · #5 01-29-2005, 06:13 PM

My opinion is that against 6 typical microlimiters who cold-called an UTG pf raise, you're almost certainly behind. Folding every weak ace (or even a king) would be very difficult, and it's likely that you'd get called down by a hand that beats you. You don't even have 3rd pair, out of position. This might be newbie thinking, but I check-fold on the flop.

hate · #6 01-29-2005, 06:41 PM

I don't at all hesitate betting out with QQ against a K overcard, and I hesitate a little more but still bet out with QQ against an Ace overcard, but I also don't see myself betting out with QQ against both overcards. The only hand I see folding profitably would be perhaps a K pair.

PSW · #7 01-29-2005, 06:53 PM

I play mostly 5 handed .50/1 at PokerRoom. With that in mind, if I was the only raiser and limpers called, I would bet out on the flop when checked to me.

If two called my raise cold (some from blinds), I might still bet out. Depends on reads. Aggressive play pays at the small tables.

psw

KingOtter · #8 01-29-2005, 06:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But against players who are generally loose preflop, many of them will fold when faced with an early position raise preflop and a bet into a board with both A and K out there unless they actually have something.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been trying to get these 'loose preflop' players to fold with early bets all day today. They don't do it. I think you underestimate their ability to suck out (it's been a rough day, lol).

If they have 2 suited and one lands on the flop, they'll call the the river. If they have a bottom pair, they'll call to the river. If they have a pocket pair... they'll call to the river. They don't care if you flipped your hand over and showed them AA with an A on the board. They'd call to the river.

But the sheer numbers here screams fold to me. Only a 13% chance of no Ace. If you're doing table selection well enough, you've got a lot of loose players on the table, and they go in with Ax (which you want them to do), you're beat.

I'd have no problems check-folding this one on the flop.

KO

bergh · #9 01-29-2005, 07:02 PM

I think this is an easy check/fold. You don't even have 2 clean outs (since a queen completes a gutshot). You are behind 99% of the time and you will never be able to fold 5 players at .5/1. Save your aggression and hope for free miracle cards, you're beaten!

Nick Royale · #10 01-29-2005, 07:05 PM

I'm a fan of probabilities. Look at it this way:

There are 47 unseen cards , 6 of them are A's and K's. 10 cards are in the hands of your opponents.

The probability to take 10 cards out of 47 without hitting a single one of the 6 A's and K's is [41!/(41-10)!]/[47!/(47-10)]= ~22%.

That means if you're opponents would have played their hands at total random you would be ahead 22%. But they have not played their hands at random, they have all (except BB) called 2 bets cold. I wouldn't dare to estimate how often you'll be ahead here, since micro players just love to play A's and K's.

Given this I can't see how betting this flop could be correct. I think check/fold this flop can't be bad choice. And what to do when you bet and get called. You ain't got a clue where you stand, cause a weak ace or king wouldn't dare to raise. Betting the flop and following up on the turn could become costly, IMO. But I might be weak/tight...