Should I have folded this AKs PF 3 handed to 2 all-ins?

Unarmed · #1 01-27-2005, 11:24 PM

$10 PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (3 handed) converter

BB (t2130)
Button (t6085)
Hero (t5285)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Button calls t150, Hero raises to t600, BB raises to t2130, Button raises to t6085, Hero calls t4685 (All-In).

Flop: (t13500) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t13500) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t13500) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t13500

captZEEbo1 · #2 01-28-2005, 12:07 AM

seems iffy to me....you still have PLENTY of chips for the current blind level.

Drac · #3 01-28-2005, 12:15 AM

I let it go. I'll frequently play AA/AK the way the big stack did there in order to induce an all in bluff from the small stack thinking he can buy my limped chips. When the big stacks drops the hammer like that I just get out of the way. He COULD be making the move with a middle PP to try to scare you out but you're still a (slight) dog to that hand. Why risk it at this point?

Sidekick · #4 01-28-2005, 12:24 AM

Whew... I know I wouldn't call the two all-ins in this situation. I think folding to the two all-ins is definately a +$EV move here (though I look forward to any dissenting opinions).

Big Stack (the Button) limps. Well, Big Stacks do that to try and win some pots by playing a variety of hands... so I like the nice preflop raise to 600.

BB then comes over the top for all his chips. BB isn't hurting for chips either, so he probably has a nice solid hand as well. Now Big Stack comes back over the top for all his chips. Somebody probably has AA or KK here, possibly looking at both AA and KK. Past experience says in situations like this where the betting follows this pattern that I am looking at AA or KK in one of these two hands.

I think BB has QQ or better and that Button was slowplaying AA or KK (but I'd lean towards AA).

Even if neither of them has these hands, all I have to do is fold here and I am either the new chip leader if BB wins or I'm not that far behind Big Stack now that it is HU.

flyingmoose · #5 01-28-2005, 04:58 AM

Your call here really depends on how strong your opposition is. If you trust your ability to outplay your opponents with 4600 chips, then it's an easy fold.

If you don't think you can outplay these guys, then it's an easy call. You basically have this tournament in the bag if you call and win. You could be dominated by AA or KK, but you probably aren't; there's an extremely wide range of hands your opponents could have.

Unarmed · #6 01-28-2005, 09:03 AM

Yeah... I should have folded, shouldn't be playing when I don't really feel like it. BTW I was 99% sure big stack didn't have AA because there's a good chance he'd smooth call here trying to draw me in. Small stack can have a wide range of hands here.

Anyway, small stack had TT and big stack had AJo. Board came rag rag rag J T.

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

Madd · #7 01-28-2005, 10:27 AM

I disagree with the majority and say you should call in this spot.

To make my point and to ease the calculations, I simplify the question here and there. First, let us assume everyone has the same chance to win the hand.

Then, if you fold in 50% of all cases the small stack wins, leaving you all with approximately the same stack size. So, you win on average 1/3 of the prize money.
You fold, in 50% of all cases the big stack wins. You win the HU in 1/3 of all cases, making it 30%+1/3*(50%-30%) = 36,7% of the prize money.
With a fold you earn 35% of the prize money.

You call.
In 1/6 of all cases, the small stack wins, the big stack has a better hand than you and you bust out third = 20%
In 1/3 of all cases, the big stack wins = 30%
In 1/3 of all cases, you win, leaving you with a huge advantage HU = 49%
And finally, in 1/6 of all cases, the small stack wins and you have the second-best hand, giving you 5290 in chips = 35% of the prize money (my loose estimation).
That makes it 35,5% of the prize money if you call.

Now, I would assume that AKs is much more likely to win the pot and there is also a better-than-average chance not to have the worst of it in the end. You could even be dominating one or both of them. That makes it an easy call in my book.

It's quite popular on this board to post comments like "Fold and outplay them later", but I wonder when these posters want to start the "outplaying".
If you fold in a spot like this, you are the one who is outplayed. With an edge you have to put your chips in the middle.

All the best.

rachelwxm · #8 01-28-2005, 11:25 AM

notice button is limp reraise against two raiser, and bb is at least has a good pair, I couln't lay down quicker.

Al Mirpuri · #9 01-28-2005, 11:31 AM

Yes because it is likely that you share an ace with one opponent so it is less likely that you will spike your ace and it is likely that the other opponent has a pocket pair so you are losing. Conclusion, you are losing with less chance than usual of catching up.

Most important of all, you are in good shape with no blind worries.

stillnotking · #10 01-28-2005, 06:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
$10 PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (3 handed) converter

BB (t2130)
Button (t6085)
Hero (t5285)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Button calls t150, Hero raises to t600, BB raises to t2130, Button raises to t6085, Hero calls t4685 (All-In).

Flop: (t13500) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t13500) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t13500) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t13500

[/ QUOTE ]

People, please do the math on this one before telling this guy to fold.

Let's put both villains on a strong hand, say AA-77, AK-AT, KQ-KJ. AKs is approximately 40% vs. two villains with this range of hands according to pokerstove. So here is the breakdown if you call:

Hero wins approximately 40% of the time, ending up with 13500 chips vs. big stack's 800 and essentially guaranteeing 1st place for $50. $50 * 0.40 = $20

Big stack wins approximately 30% of the time, knocking hero out in 2nd for $30. $30 * 0.3 = $9.

Small stack wins approximately 30% of the time. Assuming hero finishes in 3rd place in the hand 40% of those times (actually it would be less), hero has 12% chance of taking 3rd for $20 and 15% chance of ending up with 7110 in chips vs. small stack's 6390 and big stack's 800. We'll call this a 50% chance of 1st and 50% chance of 2nd, to simplify slightly. So $20 * 0.12 + $50 * 0.075 + $30 * 0.075 = $8.40. TOTAL EQUITY FOR CALLING = $20+9+8.4 = $37.40.

If hero folds, big stack and small stack are 50% against each other. 4610 So 50% chance of hero having 4610 vs. big stack's 8890, for approximately 33% chance of 1st (.33*$50 = $16.50) and 67% chance of 2nd (.66*$30 = $19.80), total equity $36.30 * 0.5 = $18.15. The other 50% of the time hero will have 4610 chips vs. big stack's 3955 and small stack's 4935, which ICM calc shows as equity of $33.60 * .5 = $16.80. $16.80 + $18.15 = $34.95 = TOTAL EQUITY FOR FOLDING.

So hero loses approximately $2.55 by folding here. He should call.