Turn Raise Correct?

LilPlaya · #1 01-28-2005, 12:51 PM

Good value bet or too agressive?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, CO raises, Hero calls, SB calls, BB 3-bets, CO calls, Hero caps, SB calls, BB calls, CO calls.

Turn: (14 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, CO folds, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls.

River: (18 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 20 BB

Rico Suave · #2 01-28-2005, 12:55 PM

lilplaya:

[ QUOTE ]
Turn Raise Correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. You just raised preflop, coldcalled/capped the flop, and the BB bet into you on the turn. You are not ahead. You are not getting a better hand to fold. You are not raising for value. So why raise?

--Rico

captZEEbo1 · #3 01-28-2005, 12:56 PM

the only way this play is +EV is if SB folds a hand that an A will make two pair AND a lone pair of aces is good enough to win. With all this action, you are better off just calling IMO (as you have 0 fold equity), as a pair of aces is no good.

molawn2mo · #4 01-28-2005, 01:02 PM

PF, fine.

Flop, don't like the cap. Not the time to chase SB away.

Turn, you're behind yet you bet like you're ahead. Yes, you have the nut flush draw and gutshot str8 draw for the nuts (or a chop) but your flushie outs are tainted. Villain very likely holds a set and is drawing to 10 outs. The turn raise is frivolous and spewiforous.

River, cool.

LilPlaya · #5 01-28-2005, 01:14 PM

I know I am not ahead, if I knew the small blind would fold I should probably just call.

I am hoping the SB stays in, with an open ended straight draw and a nut flush draw I have 15 outs (2.07:1 to hit) thus with two players i am not a a disadvantage by raising

I know calling is not neccessaryily wrong, but how wrong is raising?

LilPlaya

admiralfluff · #6 01-28-2005, 01:25 PM

If EITHER SB or CO folds for 2 more on the flop here then the cap is no good. You would get one less SB in with over calls, but the extra person in the pot is worth it should your draws come in. Also, there is a reasonable chance that both CO and SB fold here, which would be a disaster. You do not need to protect your weak overcard outs here. I aslo disagree, need it be said, with the turn raise.

sean c · #7 01-28-2005, 01:30 PM

I dont like the turn raise you ran off the blinds and cost yourself and extra bet if your flush didnt hit. One of the blinds may have been drawing to a baby flush and you could have gotten better action on the river. Don't run off cutomers when your drawing to the nuts! Your ace and jack are partial outs at best.

Sarge85 · #8 01-28-2005, 01:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
PF, fine.

Flop, don't like the cap. Not the time to chase SB away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cap on flop was uber-correct. Gut shot, nut flush draw, plenty of value here, and the SB isn't going away. He was already willing to call two cold, my guess is he'll do it again.

As for the turn however.....

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Entity · #9 01-28-2005, 01:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I know I am not ahead, if I knew the small blind would fold I should probably just call.

I am hoping the SB stays in, with an open ended straight draw and a nut flush draw I have 15 outs (2.07:1 to hit) thus with two players i am not a a disadvantage by raising

I know calling is not neccessaryily wrong, but how wrong is raising?

LilPlaya

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're 2.07:1 to hit, that means you need more than 2 callers for a raise to be profitable. You need exactly 2.07 callers to break even, which makes raising here bad. You will earn .3257x(turn bets), so you want the number of total turn bets to be as high as possible while investing the least. Your cutoff point for breakeven play is when Total Bets >= 2.07xIvested Bets.

If you call, you earn .3257x2.5 while investing 1BB (we'll say SB calls half the time) for a loss of .18BB. If you raise, SB will rarely call, and you earn .3257x4 while investing 2BB, for a loss of .697BB.

Calling here is much much much better than raising, since there is almost no chance you will win this pot UI.

Rob

LilPlaya · #10 01-28-2005, 01:47 PM

Youre reasoning is the reason I capped the flop.

I thought based on the action when the SB called the flop cap he would call 2 cold on the turn.

However I now realise I slightly overestimated my outs (15 outs - pair the board outs = 13 outs) and then i am not 2-1 so no value in it

Does the turn raise play change if the CO had called?

LilPlaya