Flush draw + pair, big pot

[Evan]

see my edit.

[mr pink]

look at it this way... assume for argument's sake that you're behind in the hand (which you probably are) and not going to win unless you improve. you raise the turn and get 1 cold caller as well as original bettor, who calls - you invest 2 big bets to gain 3 big bets (when your hand improves)... instead, you just call the turn and 3 callers come along for the ride as well - you invest 1 big bet and gain 3 big bets (when your hand improves) + you have the added benefit of not risking a 3-bet from the turn bettor. the reward is the same and the risk much less.

peace - jeff

[jonahmavesin]

I agree, and I see those downsides, plus the better payoff on a value-call vs a value raise. (Though, with 2 or more callers plus the original, you are now making money.)

But on the upside, what about protecting your outs and maximizing likelihood of winning the hand? I think the bettor has a J, but I'm not sure, right? Could be betting a draw like anyone else. Whenever he's not betting a J, I'd love to isolate myself against him, might even win unimproved. Furthermore, I'd love to fold out other hands, right? Middle pairs still drawing for sets, gutshots, AX/KX/QX, anyone who caught one of those low cards on the flop who has 5 outs to a winner... This is a big enough pot that a lot of those folks will have close to correct odds to draw out, whereas calling 2 bets they won't.

[colgin]

Let's see:

1. Your raise could get a better hand like QT to fold. That would be good.
2. On the offchance that you are ahead you might get Button to fold his AK and thus protect your vulnerable hand. That would be good.
3. And if you are behind (as is likely, IMO) your raise can be for value (or close to it) since you are probably going to get a bunch of cold callers, whether you want them or not, on this draw heavy board with a large pot.

So yeah, the raise looks pretty good.

Nice hand.

[colgin]

I thought this was an interesting hand so I am Bumping it for the morning crowd.

[IndieMatty]

Honestly it's 50/50 and it depends on the raiser and EP. I think to make a case for raising, you need to know that the Button is not the type to wait till the turn to raise his over pair AND that the EP is passive enough that he will check the river (should you go unimproved) allowing you a free showdown.

In this game or any game at this godforsaken club. You HAVE to show down the best hand, You're EP limper has a Jack, he's gonna see the river, even if an over card hits.

[Derek in NYC]

I like this line on 4th street. The main reason the raise is good is because you have a hand with showdown value, so protect it. (Although I think you're behind a TP hand and you have some risk of getting three-bet, Im not all that concerned because you have strong outs, and you also have a pretty good chance of being able to check behind for a free showdown, if the flop bettor is a wuss.) You have two limpers behind you, so facing them with two big bets may protect your hand. Even as aggressive thinking players, it seems unlikely they will raise you. They clearly dont have top pair/overpair, and if they themselves are on club/spade/str8 draws, they should smooth call rather than 3-bet with 1 card to come. This feels like a fairly safe raise (w/r/t re-raise risk), it creates a 50-50 chance of checking behind for the free showdown, and it will protect your hand against random overcards, 2-outers, gutshot draws, etc.

[Derek in NYC]

I think raising the flop is terrible. There is something to be said for reraising if raised behind you with trapped bets in between, but raising the flop will have the wrong effect for his draw.

[MRBAA]

Basically, I think Mr. Pink has some good points. You are almost surely not winning, no one with a hand you want to fold will fold, you have lots of outs and don't really mind if others stick around if you hit them. I'd just smooooth call, me self.

btw, after you guys left I continued to get few hands but finally picked up AA. Better yet, I got capped preflop, got to cap on a low raggy flop and was called down head up on turn and river only to be shown...the other AA?! Hey, who says aces never hold up.

[IndieMatty]

Nice meeting you last night Carl. Didn't know you were still there when I left.