Live $500 Buy-In NL Hand

[CrosbyBird]

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The key is looking at the tourney as a whole and not just an utg all-in with 88. You're short stacked, pretty far out of the money, and at a table with good players. You absolutely are going to have to get lucky and win some races, give some bad beats, or get hit really hard by the deck.

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I'm thinking the same thing here. I definitely don't like the line of a small raise because I'm basically allowing a tough player with a nice stack to bully me. If I raise to 4.5k and someone comes over me, puts me to a stack decision, now what? I probably have to fold, right, given the reads of a tight table?

After the first bet is called or raised, you are done driving anyone with a scary bet. You can't even overbet the pot. Any overcard and it's a good chance you are dominated.

Maybe I'm just lazy, or nervous about giving away something on such a vulnerable hand in such a vulnerable position. I play a lot of 15-minute level tourneys so the blinds go up very quickly, which may influence me as well. I think I'm going to push 88 because I think I've got a very good shot of nobody having the six pairs that are ahead of me pre-flop, and if draw hands want to call me, I'm ahead of them. I also like the idea that I'm going to eliminate all of the positional disadvantage right here. There's a pretty good chance I won't get anything nearly as good as 88 again before I'm busted out by blinds.

I think I'm going to steal the blinds most of the time, and if not, more than half of the hands that call me are going to need to improve to take down the pot, unless tight means REALLY tight. Pushing with 88 has to be +EV. It may not be the best play possible, but I can't see it as a bad decision.

It also saves you from a painful decision when a guy puts you all in from superior position. If you were a big stack, what would be your marginal hands to attack an UTG bet like this with?

[One Armed Dwarf]

Is it possible for plays like this to be +chipEV and -cashEV? I am assuming that you go all-in or fold here.

Basically, I think this play is +chipEV because of the likelihood that everyone folds. However, when everyone folds, you win 3k and your chip position isn't much better than before. You are still in all-in or fold mode, and as a consequence you have approximately the same cashEV as before (??). When someone calls, you have a very negative expectation because there is only a 35% chance that you double up, so when called you are very negative chipEV and cashEV. Therefore, your total cashEV seems negative to me (negligibly positive when everyone folds, very negative when called). Would anyone consider waiting around for a steal that has a better double-up EV even when it has less chipEV? For example, stealing in a late position where you are called by a wider range of hands. Does a play with better double-up EV have a better cashEV?

Of course, if you pass up steal opportunities like this, your double-ups will be with fewer chips. Furthermore, you might not find a better opportunity, even for double-up EV. Still, I would consider passing up this particular opportunity to steal for one with a better double-up EP. Is there anyone else that ever considers how double-up EV relates to cashEV? Or does anyone think that this may be a legitimate consideration?

The calculations done below are only marginally relevant, so feel free to skip them.

I am assuming that you will only be called with AA-JJ, AK, AQs. At a 9 person table, someone will have one of these hands ~25% of the time. When you aren't called, you win 3k. When you are called, you win 18k 35% of the time, and lose 17k 65% of the time. Your total EV is 1.2k, but your EV when called is -4.75k. If you wait around to steal from a late position with something like KJ, your EV when called might be higher, which might result in a better cashEV.

[West]

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Is it possible for plays like this to be +chipEV and -cashEV? I am assuming that you go all-in or fold here.

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I believe this would only be true in a similar situation, but where someone is much closer to the money.

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You are still in all-in or fold mode, and as a consequence you have approximately the same cashEV as before (??).

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Well, your fold equity is that much improved (or closer to being much improved), and if you happen to double up soon, you'll have that much more...having more chips means you have a better chance of not being covered when you do get in a confrontation...those 3k chips might mean the difference between a second chance and not. What is all that worth in terms of cash EV? That's the question..

[ QUOTE ]
I am assuming that you will only be called with AA-JJ, AK, AQs. At a 9 person table, someone will have one of these hands ~25% of the time. When you aren't called, you win 3k. When you are called, you win 18k 35% of the time, and lose 17k 65% of the time. Your total EV is 1.2k, but your EV when called is -4.75k. If you wait around to steal from a late position with something like KJ, your EV when called might be higher, which might result in a better cashEV.

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Assuming that you'd only receive calls from the hands you mentioned, I got ~ 21% of the time you'd be called from my quick and dirty calculation (nitpicking). Also, assuming you were always covered, you'd win 20k each of the times you weren't called by one of the blinds. Your chip EV when not called is 3000 x % not called, so I get 2370. So your chip EV when called can't be -4.75k if your total chip EV is positive. My rough estimation for chip EV when called was something like -900.

Of course, as you mentioned, the problem with waiting around for an opportunity to move in from steal position, is that you don't know when you'll have that chance, and the blinds are moving through you at 3k a pop. And obviously, any move from steal position is going to be given far less respect. The fewer chips you have, the less respect you will get as well. And there's no guarantee you will actually have a decent hand when an opporunity to steal presents itself, meaning if you are called, you might not be in any better shape than you would be if you're called with your eights. Except you'll have less chips.

[MarkD]

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I'm thinking the same thing here. I definitely don't like the line of a small raise because I'm basically allowing a tough player with a nice stack to bully me. If I raise to 4.5k and someone comes over me, puts me to a stack decision, now what? I probably have to fold, right, given the reads of a tight table?

After the first bet is called or raised, you are done driving anyone with a scary bet. You can't even overbet the pot. Any overcard and it's a good chance you are dominated.

Maybe I'm just lazy, or nervous about giving away something on such a vulnerable hand in such a vulnerable position. I play a lot of 15-minute level tourneys so the blinds go up very quickly, which may influence me as well. I think I'm going to push 88 because I think I've got a very good shot of nobody having the six pairs that are ahead of me pre-flop, and if draw hands want to call me, I'm ahead of them. I also like the idea that I'm going to eliminate all of the positional disadvantage right here. There's a pretty good chance I won't get anything nearly as good as 88 again before I'm busted out by blinds.

I think I'm going to steal the blinds most of the time, and if not, more than half of the hands that call me are going to need to improve to take down the pot, unless tight means REALLY tight. Pushing with 88 has to be +EV. It may not be the best play possible, but I can't see it as a bad decision.

It also saves you from a painful decision when a guy puts you all in from superior position. If you were a big stack, what would be your marginal hands to attack an UTG bet like this with?

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A lot of this was exactly what was going through my mind when this hand played out.

[MarkD]

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when everyone folds, you win 3k and your chip position isn't much better than before.

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Winning 3k increases my chip stack by 17.6%. I like what that does to my overall chances. I was also getting ready to seriuosly switch gears and the 3k would have helped me in that aspect of play. I was going to move into a more hyperagressive game at the table just prior to this one but never got the chance. When someone open raises for 40% of my stack from early position I don't feel like reraising. The 3k would have given me opportunities to build.

I have never considered the double up EV that you discuss. I typically am not a tournament player though.

[Cheeseweasel]

Assume that you turn up your 88 and announce "all-in" to the table.

BR = t17,000
Blinds = t2000/t1000
Hand = 88
#_ahead = 9

You will be called only by hands that are equal to or better than yours, namely AA, KK, AKs, QQ, AK, JJ, AQs, TT, AQ, 99, AJs, and 88, or 41 out of 1225 starting hands = .0335 = %_call

Your probability of winning given that you are called is = .227 = P|call

The probability that you will be called by one or more opponents is 1-((1-%_call)**(#_ahead)) = 1-((1-.0335)**9) = .264 = P|opponents

Fold_equity = (1-P|opponents)*blinds = (1-.264)*t3000 = t2208

All-in_equity = (P|opponents*P|call*(blinds+BR))-((P|opponents*(1-P|call)*BR) = (.264*.227*(t3000+t17,000))-(.264*(1-.227)*t17,000) = -t2271

Total_equity = fold_equity + all-in_equity = t2208-t2271 = -t63

EV = total_equity/BR = -t63/t17,000 = -.37%

[One Armed Dwarf]

Thanks for the responses. I guess I might have underestimated the value of those 3k chips and understated chance of doubling up with 88. I think you guys are probably correct, but I figure it is at least worth thinking about.

As for the nitpicking though, for my estimate I did (6*4+16+4)/(52ch2) = .03318 chance that a hand calls, (1-.03318)^8 = ~25% chance that someone behind calls. I assumed 8 players still to act, which may have been the difference.

When I said EV when called, I meant EV given that you are called (rather than the weighted EV accounting for probability of being called). By my estimates, the EV you are talking about is .25 * -4.75 = -1.2.

[nokona13]

I did the math and came up with a different number.

Assume a push is only called with AA-99 and AK or AQs. There are 56 such hands, and 1225 possible hands for your opponents, meaning any one has a 4.5% chance of having a hand that will call you. For the 9 players after you, there is a 65.6% chance none of them will have a calling hand (.955^9).

You win 3k when everyone folds, meaning your expected win here is T1968.

About 20% of the time, someone will have 99 through AA and call. Assuming a 77% win rate for the overpair, you expect to lose T1750.

About 13% of the time, someone will have AK or AQs calls you, you expect to win T460, assuming your pair wins 55% of the time.

This gives you an expected win of T678. If my win rates are correct, then pushing is a positive play in terms of tournament chips. I think you have to consider even a tight player might call with things like AJs or 55-77 if he thinks you're stealing with a small suited connector or something, which would of course increase your expected value.

Now, I don't know whether the T678 expected win really is going to help you get into the money, and I'm no expert tournament player, so I won't make that call. But I'm confident of the math and just in terms of expected value in terms of tournament chips, pushing is a positive call.

[nokona13]

I'm very inexperienced in B+M tourneys, so have patience if this seems stupid. But I'd like to see more conversation on the idea that you might want to only raise, or even limp here, with the HOPE that overcard hands weaker than AK of AQs will raise or re-raise you. Of course, you'd have to go all-in/call anything, and it doesn't help you get a read, but if you push you're losing to overpairs anyway. Do people think good, tightish players with a big stack would be more likely to put in a raise that covers you with like AJs or even smaller pairs with the idea that you're stealing or hoping for lighting with two high cards? If so then that might be an argument for just raising...

[West]

If I'm not mistaken, that s/b 56 out of 1326, rather than 1225, which means your chance of no one calling is a few % points higher.