Superbowl Winning Margin bets?

[CCx]

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just because they happen to be from Mass. He didn't do anything different than what you've been doing the past two weeks.

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You must have missed the smiley face indicating friendly banter - here's a few more [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[kyro]

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just because they happen to be from Mass. He didn't do anything different than what you've been doing the past two weeks.

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You must have missed the smiley face indicating friendly banter - here's a few more [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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alright, i figured there was a chance you were kidding but for some reason i felt the need to stick up for a fellow pats fans. carry on [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[kdog]

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Quote:
NE turns it over often (unlikely) or McNab has the game of his life (also unlikely).



How can you make either of these comments when they havent played the game yet...? Oh yea, you're from Mass....nevermind!

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I can make those comments before the game is played because:

1-NE has gotten to where they are by not turning the ball over and playing as a team and..
2- It is quite rare for a QB to have the game of his life against a championship caliber team.

In other words I made those comments OBJECTIVELY. I am a fan of who I bet on that particular day. Period. And when I post on a sports betting forum my comments reflect that. You would be well served to do the same.

[CCx]

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In other words I made those comments OBJECTIVELY. I am a fan of who I bet on that particular day. Period. And when I post on a sports betting forum my comments reflect that. You would be well served to do the same.

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And seeing as how my money's on the Eagles, I guess you could say that I'm 'well served'. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Good luck!

[Peter_rus]

I'm disappointed that this thread has degenerated into a war of words between Patriots and Eagles supporters. My original intent was to see if there was any value in making this type of bet. I can only see one post above that gives any worthy suggestions - thanks for the response. Oh well.

[CCx]

It's Super Bowl time, thread hijacking can occur without warning. Sorry to clog things up for you [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[MicroBob]

I agree.

A simple question asking if others think there is mathematical value in a certain bet doesn't need to be a giant 'my town is better than you town' pissing match.

Questions about EV in sports-betting: Here
PHI/NE pissing-contest: either in the OOT forum OR in one of the several threads here in SB already devoted to such chest-thumping.


Sorry for the lecture-like tone...and I admit to doing my own bit of chest-thumping when it comes to Miami (Ohio) and Memphis...but it usually is in the form of "Here's why I think Miami will win...and, oh btw, take my analysis for what it's worth because I'll qualify everything I say by reminding y'all that I'm a Miami alum." or something like that.



FWIW - I kind of like the lines you are getting on these spreads and will be looking into them myself.

I don't know my math or EV caluculations very well though.

I do happen to think the chances of several NE turnovers OR a McNabb game-of-his-life situation are actually reasonably possible (although still pretty unlikely of course).


but if PHI really IS going to win this thing it seems unlikely that it would be by more than 10 points.

ML on PHI last I checked was around +245...yet you are getting some pretty reasonable odds on 1-5 and 6-10...
It averages at +950...divided by 2 = +475 (which i'm sure isn't accurate for something like this but am not sure how to do it).

[MicroBob]

Just checked on a couple different sites:


One site has
PHI to win by 1-2 pts +2448
PHI to win by 3 pts +1243
PHI to win by 4-6 pts +1948
PHI to win by 7-9 pts +2112
PHI to win by 10-12 pts +3019
PHI to win by 13-15 pts +3019
PHI to win by 15.5+ pts +2035


Another site has:
PHI to win by 1-6 pts +400
PHI to win by 7-12 pts +600
PHI to win by 13-18 pts +1000
19-24 pts, +2000 / 25-30 pts +4000
PHI by 43 points or more is +10000 (which might actually have a teensy-weensy bit of value I think)
NE to win by 43 points or more is only +5000....what a rip-off!!!


Anyway....Obviously the lines you are getting are MUCH better than the 2nd site.

More analysis required to see how the smaller margins from the 1st site compare and I really don't know how to do that.

If I bet equally (probably a bad idea) on each of the first 3 (for 1-6 pts) for +2448, +1243, +1948 I doubt I'm getting the same kind of value there.


But, just comparing the lines you got with the lines I found on the 2nd site (+400 and +600...albeit with 6 point differences instead of 5 points) it looks like the lines you found might be decent.

[tech]

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I'm disappointed that this thread has degenerated into a war of words between Patriots and Eagles supporters. My original intent was to see if there was any value in making this type of bet. I can only see one post above that gives any worthy suggestions - thanks for the response. Oh well.


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Most Super Bowl posts have been like that, unfortunately.

In response to your original question, if I were going to bet the Eagles to win, that is how I would play it. I haven't done any detailed analysis on it, but I would put the probability of Philly winning by more than 10 at 2% or less. Also those seem like pretty good odds. Most places break the MOV props into smaller chunks than that.

With all that said, if you like the Eagles I think the best play is probably the point spread at +7 or better. Good luck to you.