Would you fold AA in this senario?

[ColdestCall]

"For those that say fold, try this as an experiment.

Get a deck of cards and a cast iron frying pan. Pull out AA, and any other 3 hands that will go up against your AA in this all-in example. Fold your AA. Hit yourself upside the head with the frying pan. Repeat 99 times."


Post of the Day! LMFAO.

[se2schul]

I got into a similar situation lastnight.
Party, 10+1.
Bubble with blinds 100/200
I have average stack in the BB.
UTG folds.
Button goes all-in for ~800
SB goes all-in with ~1500
I am dealt AA and after thinking for a while I call.

We all show.
Me AA
Button TT
SB 55

The only reason I'm posting this is because of the CRAZY flop. It came down
AT5

All three of us had trips.

I'd tell you how it finished, but then it would just sound like a bad beat post [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I'm convinced that calling in this situation is the only play to make for low-limit SNGs. If you lose, no big deal, just buy into another. If it were bubble time on a STEP 5 or something like that (which would be a huge for a low buy-in player like me), I'd probably be weak and just try to coast into the money, even though I admit it is likely the wrong play.

ss

[MrMon]

If anyone would bother to look up the rules of ties, they would see that (at Paradise at least) when two or more players go out at the same time with the same chip stack, any money is split evenly, regardless of what your hands were. (If that's the rule at Paradise, it's likely the rule everywhere.)

That said, I like that you move the chip stacks by one. Makes for a much more straighforward problem.

Odds of AA winning in this situation +- 55%
If AA wins and has a 4:1 chip lead, I'd say the odds of winning overall are 90%.
If AA folds, 3rd place is a 100% guarantee, you would be even money to beat the other short stack to second, and given the ~ 3:1:1 chip ratio, I'll say you and the other short stack will each win overall 15% of the time, meaning bigstack wins 70% of the time.

Case 1 (You Have 1 less chip)

All-In:
45% you lose so that's 0$
55% you win, finishing 1st 90% of the time, 2nd 10% so .55 * (.9 * $100 + .1 * $60) = $52.80

Fold:
100% you win $40
50% you win an additional $20
15% you win an additional $40 or
1.0 * $40 + .5 * $20 + .15 * $40 = $56

Fold is the play if you have less chips. In order to justify the all-in, you need to win 58% of the time.

Case 2 (Equal # of chips)
Same as above, except if you lose, you are in a 3 way tie for 3rd, worth $13.33, so add .45 * $13.33 to $52.80 = $58.60, or a slight edge to the all-in. But so close that it really is a coin-flip.

Case 3 (You have 1 more chip)
Folding is still the same payoff of $56

All-in:
45% you come in 3rd, which is added to $52.80 or
.45 * $40 + $52.80 = $70.80

All-in is a clear cut winner.

----------------------------------

Some of the answers here tell me why I see the plays I do. But if you are short stacked, getting in the middle of a multi-way is often a bad idea, even with AA. The math doesn't lie. Try running the same situations with less than AA and you'll really see what I mean. Short stacks need to play heads-up, period. Remember this on your next bubble. No scrums when you're the little guy.

[slydeni]

LOL- now that is a funny post!

BUT-- I think its wrong -- DEPENDING ON YOUR MOTIVATIONS.

If you wanna make money over the long haul--- you FOLD!
if you wanna gamble and play poker for fun -- you gamble and love the action!!!

wait wait! before you call me names. This is definitely str8 out of a Sklansky book - TPFAP maybe? Here are two arguements for the FOLD!

1. The sklansky one: FACT #1: you are a champion backgammon player; FACT#2: you have $500 in yer pocket and can get no more. SCENE: A guy wants to flip you coins right now and is gonna give you 2-1 on the flip...but he's only gonna flip you for $500 (everything you have in yer pocket). BUT tomorrow you are gonna get some Backgammon action that you are a sure favorite to win money at, and not for your entire bakroll. whatta you do?

answer::>> you take the backgammon action. Why gamble with yer case $500 on a situation (even if yer a slight favorite) when it may break you??? Get the money in the long haul!!

2. The math answer::: Lets say you are 50% to win with the aces. AND YOU CALL. So 50% of the time yer gonna have 12000 chips. This will give you a 80% chance to win tourney (of course these are approximations not taking into account skill, and such). The other 50% of the time you have 0 chips and 0% chance to win the tourney, or make money.

so EV is:: .8 x 50 + .2 x 30 = $46. -- won with aces
50% of the time--->> so its $23 EV.

--- now... if we dont call we lets assume we make the money 100% of the time to keep it simple. so we'll have 3000 chips, one dude will have 9000 and another 3000. we have 20% chance to win.

--->> so when we fold the aces:: .2 x 50 + .4 x 30 + .4 x 20 = 45 (if we do take ties into account it will be a bit lower...but not lower than $40).

--->> so... when we fold the aces our EV is +40 ish (taking the ties into account).

---->>> when we call...our EV+ is +23.

I think I'll hold off on the frying PAN!

sly

[slydeni]

DONT GET caught up in the ties... it may lower the EV a bit...but certainly not from 45 to 23.

FOLD them bad boys!

sly

[Frogistador]

[ QUOTE ]
wait wait! before you call me names.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to worry. I have to admit that I didn't read this thread very carefully at all. Sarcasm is my Pavlovian response to the "Should I fold AA" threads.

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[FoldingAAPolice]

SIR, I'M GOING TO HAVE TO ASK YOU TO STEP OUT OF THE CAR, DROP THE CARDS, AND PLACE YOUR HAND BEHIND YOUR BACK.

YOU ARE UNDER ARREST FOR THE CRIME OF POSTING ANOTHER 'SHOULD I FOLD MY AA PREFLOP' THREAD, THE MOST USELESS THREAD POSSIBLE ON THIS FORUM. YOU HAVE THE RIGHT TO REMAIN SILENT AND ANYTHING YOU SAY CAN AND WILL BE USED AGAINST YOU IN A COURT OF LAW. PLEASE GET INTO THE POLICE VEHICLE AND COME WITH ME TO THE STATION WHERE YOU WILL BE STOPPED FROM EVER POSTING THIS THREAD AGAIN.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR COOPERATION.

[sofere]

Wow...someone went through the trouble of creating a new handle for the express purpose of that post. Thats gotta tell you somethin.

[FirstClash]

But people seemed to like to analyze it and it's helped me understand similar senarios and what's important when deciding whether to hold or fold.

For example. If it's correct to fold AA's in this senario, then there's no question about KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ, KQ, etc. Now I may be simplifying it and might get some responses about how it's not so strait forward with some of the non-paired cards. But in any case, knowing how close of a call it is here makes it easier to fold the others in similar senarios.

This also gives me a reference point that I can start adjusting variables... like now it's only 2 people all in before you with only 4 people left... Seems clearer to call with AA now. But what about KK? Another variable for me to look at later. By taking an extreme example you won't see very often, then applying the same math in more common examples, patterns form and with that I learn the principles I need to play better.

In any case, I found people's responses humerous at times, very insightful at other times, and really got me thinking about different angles I hadn't considered.

Thanks for all your responses.

[Roland Deschain]

[ QUOTE ]

--->> so when we fold the aces:: .2 x 50 + .4 x 30 + .4 x 20 = 45 (if we do take ties into account it will be a bit lower...but not lower than $40).

--->> so... when we fold the aces our EV is +40 ish (taking the ties into account).

---->>> when we call...our EV+ is +23.


[/ QUOTE ]

I realize this thread is basically over...but, I couldn't understand the discrepancy between this statement and earlier scenarios using similar assumptions that indicated it was a much closer decision.

So I looked at this math...and as far as I can tell:

.2 x 50 + .4 x 30 + .4 x 20 = 30, not 45.
(0.2 * 50 = 10; 0.4 * 30 = 12; 0.4 * 20 = 8)

So now it's $30 for the fold vs. $23 for the call. And I suspect the difference is a little conservative based somewhat on not factoring in ties, and somewhat on what seems to me a slightly low estimate of how often the AA holds up.

Not saying that it turns it into a clear call. Just saying this argument actually lines up pretty well with the earlier posts showing it as close. Can't access twodimes from work to check the odds of AA against various hands, or (more interestingly) to see how other hands like KK, AKs, etc would hold up.