Would you fold AA in this senario?

[jedi]

In a satellite where top 3 are paid the same thing (a seat to another event), I fold.

In a normal SnG with increasing payouts, I call.

[Gramps]

Easy call, do you see why? (I just wanted to say that once).

First of all, you'll probably be about 50% or so to win the hand and have a 4:1 chip lead HU.

But, the reason why it becomes an easy call is that even if you call and lose, you need two players to beat you to finish out of the money. If your Aces are second-best after 5 cards are flipped, you're eliminated but in 3rd place. At worst you'll get 3rd the vast majority of the time.

I'm too lazy to do the math, but I assume if you plugged it into ICM or something it wouldn't even be close (between call and fold) given the payout structure and stack sizes (all equal).

[valenzuela]

im a math genius: ehem...
fold= $30( u win 20% of the time, 40% second, 40% third)
call= $30 IF u have a 66% of chance of winning the all-in.($46 avg. profit if u win the all-in). Aces dont win 66% of the time against 3 other cards whihc means the fold is correct.

[Adjective]

I would say that this is an easy fold, unless you want to feel extreme heartbreak and sadness when your aces get busted by a lower ranking hand that outdraws you. There is a pretty good chance one of the other players has an aces even further lowering your chances, but *three* people all in infront of you? I'd say just fold and save yourself the heartbreak of getting your aces outdrawn by a lower hand. Also looking at the payout of the tourny I would rather fold and get in the money then play and get diddly.

Mathematically speaking however this is probably an easy call, but then again you're not going to win every tournament doing what math tells you to do

[david050173]

I the best for you would be something like
AKo
AKo
KK

At that point you just have to dodge have the 2 of the 4 flushes and the QJT straight (ok there are a few split pots)
you win 93% of the time with 5% split pots

In the worst case, 67s is worse for you than JT(it doesn't depend on having queens, or aces as outs).

You will win 2% of the time and losing 43%. You can mess around increase your loss percentage put in turn you win % would go up.

I assume (in the no split pot case) if you get 4th you get 1/3 of a buyin (chip stacks equal, 3 people eliminated on the same hand) back which wasn't accounted for in the EV calculations done earlier. That money changes the call from EV- to EV+ according to the prior calcs.



In the WSOP final table which is a once in a lifetime thing for most people this is fold. In a 10 dollar sng where you can play 50 a day if wanted, I am calling all day long. I don't want to develop bad habits like thinking about folding AA.

[Evolution Crisis]

I can't understand why you'd want to fold here... you're dominating most hands, and you're ahead of any hands you're not dominating. There's no guarentee that you're winding up in the money even if you fold anyways, there's always split pots with 2 of them having the same hand, or a straight hitting the board or something; and then you're playing to avoid 4th place as the short stack anyways. You have the same odds of hitting a 3rd A for your set as anyone else does of hitting their set (before seeing the opponents cards obviously, even if you do think one may have AK or AQ), and even though you might be up against AK or AQ you having AA just lowers their chances of catching anything.

[valenzuela]

eek....i forgot one tiny detail..theres third place money in case u bust which should be $6,7 since everyone had the same strating chips.
fold:$30
call:$30 with a 60% of chance of winning the all-in.

[valenzuela]

btw my exact number was $30,28 but with third place at $6,7...

[Mr_J]

I think you forgot to deduct the buyin [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I'll just add something, if EV was even then folding is the better move since there's less variance.

Best scenario is you are up against KK and 2 AK. That way everyone is almost drawing dead (ruling out str8s).

"Would your decision change if this was the final table at the WSOP where the difference between 5th place and 3rd is life changing $$?"

I'm not sure on the difference in prizemoney but I think that it probally favours a 'gamble for 1st' approach. You won't get paid 5th anyway. I'm not sure how they do it for WSOP (if stacks are same, do they tie or judge by hand?).

[Mr_J]

"I can't understand why you'd want to fold here"

Look at the maths examples. It's not about being ahead, with AA you are easily ahead (unless someone else has AA). It's whether it is more profitable to fold and slide into the money, and it looks like it is.

I think one thing needs to be made clear here:

If you lose, do you share equal third, or do they decide place by hand strength?