Re: Boating up against a possible bluff?
I agree with you. If you bet the turn after he has checked, he is only going to call you with a hand (it will be a hand that you are almost certainly ahead of, but it will have to be a hand). Whether he has a hand or not, he will most likely bet the river. If he doesn't, then you make a small bet and he will fold. You are no worse off than if you had made the same small bet on the turn, but you gave him a chance to bluff again or catch up a bit. If he does have a hand (55, Qx or even Ax), you will still get plenty of action on the river.
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