value raise or slow play?

[willie24]

Here's how I looked at this hand:

MP1 could have anything. he is unlikely to call 2 bets without a big hand, but he's also fairly unlikely to call 1 bet without a pair- which he likely doesn't have. He's pretty unimportant here, because he probably isn't even close and will fold. A raise and a slowplay will probably get similar (small) amounts of $ out of him in the long run. I've seen this guy call raises preflop with 54o T7o and reraise with J2s.

the SB bet is very interesting because- knowing that 3/4 aces are accounted for, he probably doesn't have the ace he is representing.

1. he could have a 2 or 66. in this case it is far better to raise, because he will likely assume I have a high ace and reraise, allowing me to cap.

2. he could have a flush draw- in this case it's obviously better to raise.

3. he could have the last ace. in this case it doesn't matter what i do. he's calling down from here on out.

4, and probably the most likely- he has something worse than an ace and is bluffing. in this case a slowplay is better.

you guys are right- a raise is better, because it gets 1-3 extra bets (i'll say 2.3 on average) both when he has 2/66 and when he HITS his flush draw. A call gets 1 extra bet when he is bluffing. the ratio of 2/66 or made flush draw:bluff is probably something like 1:2, making a raise superior.