am i totally weak or WHAT?

afficax · #1 01-21-2005, 01:38 AM

i just sat down on the table, people seemed pretty loose. no reads.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP1 posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 (poster) checks, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 caps, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (10 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 bets, Hero calls, Button raises, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

River: (16 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 bets, Hero folds, Button raises, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 20 BB

jonahmavesin · #2 01-21-2005, 01:48 AM

tough one. I certainly don't let go. In fact, I probably raise the turn here just to see what happens.

I certainly don't fold the river. you could be up against two pair or a lower set. but obviously, given the preflop action, being up against a flopped straight (78) or higher set (99) is also a distinct possibility. But if my turn raise still didn't calm them down, I probably call through the river, because I'm too loose post-flop. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Niediam · #3 01-21-2005, 01:49 AM

I'd fold the river. I'd make a crying call if it was checked to the button and he bet but you really can't call two bets here so folding after MP2 bets is correct considering the buttons previous aggression.

Brash620 · #4 01-21-2005, 02:06 AM

Very good play.

afficax · #5 01-21-2005, 02:33 AM

button showed JJ to beat MP2 (TT) for the pot. i go on tilt and lose 20 BB in the next hour =P

Niediam · #6 01-21-2005, 02:43 AM

You made a good fold. Concentrate on your correct play and don't worry about winning money as that will come with time and correct play.

Brash620 · #7 01-21-2005, 02:46 AM

That's a kick straight to the package but I would still play it the same had the situation happened again.

Snoogins47 · #8 01-21-2005, 03:56 AM

You're getting 10 to 1 if you have to call a bet and then a raise on the river, and the stop and go might get you the showdown for a single bet...

I probably lean toward folding, but I don't think showing this hand down could be that large of a mistake.

Elbie · #9 01-21-2005, 04:18 AM

The aggressors on the turn and river also were the aggressors on the flop. I wouldnt put any of them on a gutshot (holding the 7) on the flop. Another set, two pair, a flushdraw are much more probable. I would call this down on the river with a set. I would also raise the MP2 turn-bet.

jonahmavesin · #10 01-21-2005, 09:10 AM

Yeah, see, THAT'S why I wouldn't fold here. I think you have to keep being the aggressor through the turn - in your head, you're thinking "I'm up against a 7 or even two, they'll cap it, I'm throwing away money," but if you raise, you may start just getting calls, which tells you the all-important information that you aren't up against any straights.

Another clue here is the capped flop. To believe in the straight, you have to believe somebody hit the 78, not just the 7. Nobody caps with just a gutshot. The more I look at this, the more it looks like two LAGs with overpairs.

Just remember Sklansky/Miller/Malmuth's advice: Calling those last two bets when you're beaten by the 7 is indeed a mistake. But folding the best hand in that pot is a DISASTER. You would have gotten about 8:1 on the river to call 2, which means you needed to be 88% certain of the 7 to fold. Now that you've lost that pot, you need to make another 8 perfect 2BB laydowns, or 15-16 flawless 1BB laydowns, to make up for it. That's a LOT of laydowns. Better to stop looking for those perfect laydowns and just win the occasional, if surprising, big pot by showing down.