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#21
01-19-2005, 07:59 PM
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Re: EDIT
I'd raise AK here a fair amount of the time - the pot is big and I want anyone to fold I can like , but more importantly to get a free turn card, which is likely in this spot. You won't reraise unless you have a big hand but will likely call with a piece of the board, so we can take a free card on 4th.
Where I'm confused is here: We want people to fold a lot in a big pot, but it's likely that anyone with a pair and an A or K will still call the raise on the flop in this big pot. So we can't clean up our outs, but we want to eliminate opponents. What am I missing here? 
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#22
01-19-2005, 09:48 PM
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Re: EDIT
[ QUOTE ]
I'd raise AK here a fair amount of the time - the pot is big and I want anyone to fold I can like [/ QUOTE ] I think that if he had AK, raising me on the flop would clearly be correct. With my bet, there are already more than fifteen bets in the pot. Lots of hopeless hands will call for one bet but fold for two. I think just calling with AK would definitely be worse than raising. That's why I said that raising is a "fine play". But the question isn't what the correct play is for the button. The question is what play he will actually make. And I don't believe that he would raise with AK, even though doing so would be right. As said, I suspect that the fact that I frequently see people on this forum assume that their opponents would make this kind of raise means that they must play in tougher games with better players than I do. I certainly can't see an average player in the Bellagio 15/30, or in my local mid-limit games, finding this raise. [ QUOTE ] We want people to fold a lot in a big pot, but it's likely that anyone with a pair and an A or K will still call the raise on the flop in this big pot. So we can't clean up our outs, but we want to eliminate opponents. What am I missing here? [/ QUOTE ] Your saying with the AK or my thinking with my A3? Assuming you mean with the AK, you can definitely clean up outs. If the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] comes on the turn, you may have forced someone out with your flop raise who would have picked up a flush draw. Blank hearts (and the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) are now okay for you on the river, whereas without the flop raise those cards would lose for you on the river. Someone with a hand like 44 might fold and allow us to win when a 4 comes on the turn, we take our free card, and an A comes on the river. Maybe a K comes on the turn and a 9 on the river. If we don't raise, some guy with QT would have picked up a straight draw and beat us on the river. But since we raised and got him out, the 9 is a clean card for us on the river once our K comes on the turn. I could go on with a dozen more conceivable scenarios where raising causes end up winning the hand whereas calling wouldn't. Raising definitely increases our chance of winning this pot. Also, the assumption that no one will fold a pair with a big kicker isn't always true. There is certainly some chance that someone who limped with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] will fold middle pair facing two bets cold, etc. Even though all of these possiblities are unlikely individually, overall we will win the pot much more often if we raise the flop, especially because there are so many opponents who can potentially find a way to beat us if they stick around.
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#24
01-20-2005, 04:17 PM
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Re: Bellagio 15/30 A3s - RESULTS
I think A 3 is a losing hand most of the time in this instance. What your really hoping for is a flop like 33x or diamonds. Your play pre-flop isnt that bad since you have people already in the pot but what are you supposed to do when the flop comes A,7,10 or something similar. You have to hate your kicker and then your in trouble to any bet after the flop whithout the diamond draw. I think you would be better off passing A,3 and wait for a better situation. If the game has turned good it shouldnt take too long to extract money out of it with a better holding. Although the added bonus of showing your hand to let people know you will play a weak ace is o.k.. just my opinion. Good luck. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
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#26
01-20-2005, 04:40 PM
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Re: Bellagio 15/30 A3s - RESULTS
[ QUOTE ]
I think A 3 is a losing hand most of the time in this instance. What your really hoping for is a flop like 33x or diamonds. Your play pre-flop isnt that bad since you have people already in the pot but what are you supposed to do when the flop comes A,7,10 or something similar. You have to hate your kicker and then your in trouble to any bet after the flop whithout the diamond draw. I think you would be better off passing A,3 and wait for a better situation. If the game has turned good it shouldnt take too long to extract money out of it with a better holding. Although the added bonus of showing your hand to let people know you will play a weak ace is o.k.. just my opinion. Good luck. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] One great thing about poker is that we aren't limited in the number of hands we are allowed to play each round/hour/day/etc. If we could only play one hand per hour, folding A3s here and waiting for a better situation would be retardedly simple. But we aren't restricted, so we can play every single hand that is +EV; and A3s here is most definitely +EV.
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#29
01-20-2005, 04:52 PM
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Re: Bellagio 15/30 A3s - RESULTS
I have to disagree with you. You say we arent restricted and that is true free will is in all of us but it doesnt mean that you should play hands that can be dominated by A-45678910JQK, behind by 22,33,44,55,66,77,88,99,1010, jj,qq,kk. almost even with Kx or any random hand like 10,9 etc. Where is the pos ev? Only after a good flop can you make such a decision and do you really want to waste money hoping to hit a good flop? If you saw ten flops at fifteen dollars a pop thats 150 if you made a good decision to release after a bad flop. But thats not always the case you may be induced to play further. The most youll win heads up in one of those just doesnt add up? You still stand to loose much more. Whatyathink? [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
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#30
01-20-2005, 06:10 PM
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Re: Bellagio 15/30 A3s
There was some discussion here a few months back about raising AXs after limpers. I prefer to just limp. After its raised, I just call. Maybe I am too passive and slow to learn new things, but I prefer play it simply as an implied odds hand, invite callers, see the flop cheaply. Call me old school.
On the flop, I bet and hope it is raised by the button with overcards. Maybe medium pair or second pair folds. Maybe I have the best hand. Isn't betting into the raiser on the flop with a pair and hoping the raiser raises the way we used to play these hands? I think I missed a memo or something.
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