Call the river?

[admiralfluff]

If his impression of the table is tight then I think it is fairly reasonable to assume that most of the table is tight. This player would have to be specifically loose to make this call worthwhile, IMO.

[Swills]

Hmmm, I suppose UTG could try to steal the blinds with a raise but if he were raising anything just to do so I'd think UTG is one horrible position to try to steal the blinds. He has 5 other people behind him.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
If his impression of the table is tight then I think it is fairly reasonable to assume that most of the table is tight. This player would have to be specifically loose to make this call worthwhile, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

It really depends on how long he's been at the table. Did his impression come from 3 hands or a couple orbits? If he hasn't seen this guy get out of line in 2 orbits, then I might agree with you -- at the very least, it's close. But I was assuming an unknown oppo. Versus him you must call this.

gm

[admiralfluff]

I agree. But I would make this call against a tricky player on an extremely tight and somewhat aggressive table, because a UTG raise in that situation may be more effective at stealing the blinds then a later position raise, because people don't expect a raise with something like KTs from UTG, and will be far less inclined to defend their blinds from such a raise. Any pocket pair would be likely in that situation as well. But at a reasonably tight table, where most flops are seen by around 3 people, an average player at that table will not raise UTG with 55-22. I think the vast majority of the time here you're shown an ace, the rest of the time you're shown KQ, KJ, KK, JJ, maybe 88 or 77. You will win this pot sometimes, and your check certainly would induce a bluff from a hand you beat, but I don't think he has a hand you beat here more than 15% of the time. If the pot were twice as large, the call would be easy. As it stands, IMO it's debateable at best.

[Swills]

I've been there for 2 orbits and UTG has not gotten out of control.

I do agree my biggest mistake here is calling. I should have folded pre-flop.

[admiralfluff]

agreed. QJs is a very pretty hand, but HU it's a dog to any ace or any king. I will also conceed that against your random unknown 2/4 player that call is automatic (not the PF one, but the river), but here I think it's a clear fold.

[Swills]

[ QUOTE ]
agreed. QJs is a very pretty hand, but HU it's a dog to any ace or any king. I will also conceed that against your random unknown 2/4 player that call is automatic (not the PF one, but the river), but here I think it's a clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

It sure was pretty! Yeah, I could justify my calling if at least 2 others linmped in but not heads up.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
agreed. QJs is a very pretty hand, but HU it's a dog to any ace or any king. I will also conceed that against your random unknown 2/4 player that call is automatic (not the PF one, but the river), but here I think it's a clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nonsense. QJs is 40% vs AKo. You are getting 3:1 on that call PF. Even considering reverse implied odds, this is an easy call. Even easier than the river call, which -- now that we know villain is not loose -- was not so easy after all.

gm

EDIT: It's 32% versus AA-99, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AJo, KQo -- but still an easy call IMO.

[admiralfluff]

where do you get 40% from? I would think it would be a little less than 30. If you can't fold your Q when a A or K hits then the implied odds work both ways too, albeit, more so in the QJs favor.

[Brian]

Fold pre-Flop, especially at a tight table, and it's not close. You're almost always dominated by an UTG raiser with QJ, and even the times that you aren't, you won't be able to extract the maximum out of your hand due to being out of position and scared of a better hand. You will probably also lose a lot those times that you flop a Queen or a Jack and it's not good, unless you are just an exceptionally good player and can let go of top pair when it's not good (which I'm not).

You're fighting an uphill battle out of position with the only thing going for you the pot odds you are getting pre-Flop. 3:1 is just not good enough when you will be dominated often. And it's going to put you in a lot of sticky situations post-Flop. Trust me. Fold pre-Flop.

Once you decide to play the hand, I would check-raise the Flop and bet the Turn. This is pretty much one of the best flops you can hope for with your hand, although note that you are still behind to every standard UTG raising hand at a tight table other than AK and JJ (which is why you should fold this hand pre-Flop). You know he's going to bet if you check, so why bet yourself?

I would check and fold the River. Betting is much better than checking and calling, but I believe that check-folding is best of all.

-Brian