Call the river?

Swills · #1 01-20-2005, 06:41 AM

No reads but the table over all is fairly tight.

Poker Room 2/4

Hero is in the BB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG raises, 8 folds, Hero calls (or should I have folded?)

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero Bets, UTG calls

Nice flop. Got top pair and I am open ended. I bet.

Turn: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets, UTG calls

Nice card. I'd rather an 8 but I'm feeling the [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Just gets better and better. I bet!

River: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero...?

What to do? This guy did raise preflop and has come all this way. No real reads on him but the table overall has been tighter than I like.

gaming_mouse · #2 01-20-2005, 06:46 AM

Given your check -- which may have induced a bluff -- that is an easy, easy call. You only need to be good here 1 time in 7. You are good here way more than that.

gm

Swills · #3 01-20-2005, 06:51 AM

It should be an easy call but this table is tight. You know its a tight table when you end watching just the blinds play, over and over again. I put him on AK. I'm sure he was looking for a J. When that Ace hit, I wasn't so quick to call.

admiralfluff · #4 01-20-2005, 06:53 AM

I fold that unless at least one other limper is in, especially if UTG is likely a tight player. The answer to your question lies in one vital piece of information that you left out. The pot size, which is 7BB if you make the call. I think. I haven't added up a pot in a long time. whatever. There's a chance he has JJ, but every other hand worth a legitemate UTG raise from a tightish player beats you, and the pot just isn't that big. I lay it down, and probably should have pre-flop, unless the table was so tight that UTG had a good chance of stealing the blinds and was aware of this.

gaming_mouse · #5 01-20-2005, 06:56 AM

The call is not even debatable. Yes, it's true that you are probably going to lose, maybe 60, 70% of the time. But you have to be losing here more than 85% of the time to justify a fold.

admiralfluff · #6 01-20-2005, 06:57 AM

I think the only way you call this is if you have a read on the player. 7 to 1 aint great. I think you're losing more than this, unless early raises have been consistently stealing blinds, in which case you could extend his likely holdings to include a decent range of hands you beat. I think you're losing this way more than 6/7 times.

gaming_mouse · #7 01-20-2005, 06:58 AM

Plus, you said you have no reads, so you should not be putting him on such a narrow range of hands just because the table as a whole seems tight.

admiralfluff · #8 01-20-2005, 07:00 AM

what hands do you think you'll be shown 15% og the time that he beats here?

gaming_mouse · #9 01-20-2005, 07:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the only way you call this is if you have a read on the player. 7 to 1 aint great. I think you're losing more than this, unless early raises have been consistently stealing blinds, in which case you could extend his likely holdings to include a decent range of hands you beat. I think you're losing this way more than 6/7 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true if his PF standards are similar to SSH standards. But why are so sure of this with no reads?

gaming_mouse · #10 01-20-2005, 07:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
what hands do you think you'll be shown 15% og the time that he beats here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Versus an unknown at 2/4?? Any pocket pair.

EDIT: Cancel that. Anything at all.