Foxwoods $2000 NLHE Final Table Hand

[Toro]

He folded and finished 2nd but took some grief from a couple of people later on saying he should have called. He's in Tunica now and out of the clear blue sky called me last night and asked me to post this. They must have gotten into another discussion about it and he's probably catching more flak for folding.

I wish he could post himself and explain his reasoning but if I got it right it's something like this. He wanted to limp and then have this guy raise, presumably to 24K or 32K. Then his plan was to come over the top of the guy all-in and make the guy get off his hand and win the pot uncontested.

Looking at the stack sizes I think that this reasoning is flawed with that scenario in that the guy may very well call unless he was on a outright steal.

The only thing I can say in my friends defense is that he felt he was a much better player than the other 3, so when the guy went all-in, thus foiling his original plan, he didn't want to gamble in case the guy had a pair and it was a coin flip situation.

The tourney ended rather ironically btw. When he got HU with Seat 1, they played exactly 1 hand. Seat 1 had him 2 to 1 in chips. My friend went all-in with AJ and Seat 1 called with Q8 and spiked a queen.

[Ian J]

Well, if the purpose of the play was to trap seat 4 then that's what happened. I don't understand what the question is. Call.

[Ian J]

[ QUOTE ]

He wanted to limp and then have this guy raise, presumably to 24K or 32K. Then his plan was to come over the top of the guy all-in and make the guy get off his hand and win the pot uncontested.

[/ QUOTE ]

Presumably your friend is very good. Being very good, he should realize when somebody is pot committed. If seat 4 was the type to put in 32k and fold for 46k more then I can't comment. However, very few people would raise to 32k or even 24k for that matter and fold to a push from your friend in a 4 handed situation.

[Bet_to_Nguyen]

Would an open raise all-in make any sense here?

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone taking into account the big jump in payouts from 3rd to 2nd?

[/ QUOTE ]

How bout the bigger payout jump from 2nd to 1st??

[partygirluk]

Given that Seat 4 has < 10 BBs, Hero knows that any confrontation with him is going to be all in.

Hence his line makes no logical sense.

[DyessMan89]

In normal situations I would fold, but since the jump in payouts from 3rd to 2nd and from 2nd to 1st are so high, playing selective and waiting for a short stack to go out to ensure only 3rd is a bad move. If the prize structure was something like this ....

1st- 100,000
2nd- 80,000
3rd- 70,000
4th- 25,000

Then I might sit back. But not with the current payout structure.

[sdplayerb]

yes, but if you fold, you are close to tied for 2nd.
he is making this push with more than just pocket pairs.
AQ, AJ, AT, KQ. Unless you think this guy is a rock trying to wait for the low stack to be knocked out first.

[Gramps]

Sounds like Seat 4 could be doing this with a wide range of hands. The fact that he pushed all-in makes me think that he's less likely to have a monster. I'd almost rather see him push. While AA/KK isn't 0%, of the times Seat 2 has it he'd probalby play it different the majority (if not vast majority) of the time - he knows Seat 2 folded to his raise a little earlier, why would a push get action (unless he's trying to think on some "higher level" but it's probably safe to assume he's not going to make a play like this very often with AA/KK)? Seat 2 is who Seat 4 is battling for 2nd place against - don't think he'd be likely to play AA/KK "scared" here.

In a worst-case scenario where Seat 2 calls and loses, he still has Seat 3 covered 42,000 to 24,000 (he's in the BB first, but he still has an edge). So...of the times he calls and loses, you'd have to think he still gets 3rd or better at least 50% of the time. 50% of the prize jump from 4th to 3rd is $8,500 - that's what's being put at risk here.

What's the benefit? A $35,000 jump to 2nd (which Seat 2 is almost guaranteed if his AKo holds up with about a 9:1 chip edge on Seat 3), and a realistic shot at the $50,000 jump from 2nd to 1st. I don't think it's a stretch to say that Seat 4 could be doing this push with worse A-x's (or even worse Kings, or some semi-crappy hand even). My guess is AKo is about slight favorite with a nice overlay against Seat 4's likely range of hands.

Given the variables/information described, easy, easy call. The results from this particular tournament (after Seat 2 folded) are short-term and don't effect whether it was right to fold or not.

[Myrtle]

Toro..........

Trying to put myself into the moment.......

Stack Sizes - If I’m Carlo (hero) I’m very aware of both payouts and stack sizes/blind positions. I’m in 2nd chip position, (T120k) considerably behind 1st (T380k), but a good amount ahead of 3rd (T78k), with 4th (T24k) on the verge of having to play all his chips very soon.........

Payouts – 2nd ($94k) is more than double 4th ($42k), and a good chunk better than 3rd ($59k). Of course, I’m playing to win ($154k), but pragmatic reality has to enter my thought process. What am I thinking?....well.........

.........Table Factors – If I’m Carlo, and I feel comfortable with my reads on the other 3 players, and, as you say, I feel that I’m the best player at the table, then I will not be taking any unnecessary risks, as the difference between 2nd, 3rd & 4th place money is significant enough for me to not want to gamble it up and jeopardize what surely looks like a minimum 2nd place finish for me.

You and I both know that Carlo is very good at reading a table, and he is fully capable of setting and executing a trap on an over-aggressive player. As you explained, that was the plan, so...........

......He limps UTG with AKo for less than 10% of his stack, with a clearly thought out plan to trap the villain. BUT.....what is he looking for? I’d be willing to bet that he is looking for villain to make a 3-4x SB steal. What he gets is something really different though! Villain goes all-in for 78k, making the pot 98k.. Carlo is faced with putting in another 78k (leaving him with 34k in his stack) to call with...... a drawing hand. If he calls and wins, great. He now has T212k, which is still less than 55% of the big stack. In other words, winning this pot does not put him in serious contention for winning the tournament. Losing the pot, however, is disastrous! He is now left with T34k, and is facing a T8k BB and T4k SB with T500 antes both times. His previous reasonably secure shot at 2nd place money is now gone, and he’s fighting like hell to take 3rd, and facing a potential $52k shortfall swing if he busts out and finishes 4th. Given the above, I don’t like the risk/reward of calling here.

I think his plan was not unreasonable (given his table reads), but it simply didn’t work out the way he had hoped. Had it, and the SB had made the T3k steal/re-raise that Carlo had hoped for, then he now can execute by coming over the top, forcing the SB to make a decision to call off all of his chips to an UTG limp-allin re-raise.

I applaud Carlo for not making a compound error by calling here. I think he had his priorities correct in this case, and it is one of those situations where tournament payout considerations take precedence over card play.