Giving value to an out

Arcturus · #1 01-17-2005, 10:04 PM

I know this question probably belongs in Micro or in General, but maybe there are some other beginners that have the same question, or haven't asked yet.

Is there a general percentage that you can give to an out?

This is where I came up with this question. If you have one out, you should have break-even pot odds of 46 to 1 on the turn, 45 to 1 on the river. If you have two outs, the pot odds would be 22.5 to 1 on the turn and 22 to 1 on the river. I get that. However, reading in SSH about backdoor flush draws, it is mentioned that "A hand with one out has a 2/47 chance to improve by the river, so it is a 22.5 to 1 dog." I thought that one out means that you only have one card that can help you. I understand how you value a backdoor flush (1.5 outs), but I just don't get how one out is equal to 2/47. Can someone shed some light? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

K C · #2 01-17-2005, 10:53 PM

An out from the flop to the river is actually 2 outs (1/47 + 1/46). A quick rule of thumb (accurate enough) is to assign 2% per out per street. (It's actually 2.1, but this gives you a little margin of safety, as you don't want to be drawing to break even). Then, take the amount of outs you have, and multiply by 2%, and you can see what percentage roughly you have to win the thing.

KC
kingcobrapoker.com

KenProspero · #3 01-18-2005, 12:43 AM

Can you give us the page and example in SSH? It might make it easier to figure it out.

GvegasTiger · #4 01-18-2005, 11:24 AM

Newbie here. What is this SSH I keep reading?

KenProspero · #5 01-18-2005, 11:40 AM

Small Stakes Hold 'em, by Jones, Sklansky and Malmuth (though, apparantly mostly by Jones).

The consensus of this forum is that this is technically the best book for learning how to beat loose games that one usually sees at the lower limits. However, the consensus also is that this book will take the longest to master.

If you're a newbie, other books that people cite with favor include Winning Low Limit Hold 'em (WLLH)by Lee Jones, and Hilger's Internet Texas Hold em (ITH).

Jones' book is the easiest to read (though most here think that Hilger's book is better if you spend the time with it).

So, as with all things, life has it's trade offs. You can get a good book that's easier to master (WLLH), a great book that's harder to master (SSH) or try to split the difference (ITH), or get all three.

As Zehn · #6 01-18-2005, 12:16 PM

Actually, the authors of Small Stakes Hold Em are Ed Miller, David Sklansky & Mason Malmuth. Jones is the author of Winning low Limit Hold Em.

GvegasTiger · #7 01-18-2005, 01:39 PM

Thanks for explanation. I'm about to finish up The Theory of Poker by Sklansky and then start Texas Holdem for Advanced Players right after. TOP is the only book I've read so I'll have to check out the 3 you mentioned.

As Zehn · #8 01-18-2005, 01:56 PM

You might want to check this link regarding what books and in what order to read them what books to get . Hope this helps.

Arcturus · #9 01-18-2005, 06:23 PM

Last paragraph on Pg. 102 in SSH. I guess my question boils down to where the 2/47 comes from if you only have one out?

KC - Are you saying that even though it is "one out" and since you could hit it on the turn or the river, it actually has the probability of two outs?