Cognitive Dissonance

[phoenix6]

…or “That card couldn’t have helped him”

I have been lurking here for months, absorbing all this wonderful forum has to offer, all the while feeling that I was taking much and had little to offer in return. I am sticking my head from my shell in hopes that I can present an interesting topic, and think I am, much like a first time caller to my local Sports Talk Show who defensively starts with the old, ‘first time long time’ line in hopes of getting some slack from the hosts if he is a bit inept in his offerings, stutters, stammers, or forgets to turn the radio down.

So.. ‘first time long time’

In regards to Online NLHE MTTs:

I have a leak in my game, I know it. Others have the same leak, I know it, I exploit it. Perhaps some day I’ll put a finger in the dyke and not think to myself, “c’mon there are no monsters under the bed“, perhaps not.

The leak is an inability to reassess what my opponents possible holdings are when there is a strong deviation in their betting patterns. In other words, they “wake up” when what appears to be an innocuous card hits the board, or suddenly come to life on the river while calling in previous rounds of betting.

I tend to think along the lines that I am playing against Made Hands or Drawing Hands. I know some players bet their strong draws, I also think I know the players who bet their strong draws (unless I had to let the dogs out and missed a bunch of hands). Often I don’t know the players who bet weak draws (like their 2:1 four flush flops) until they are gone, or crack a big pocket pair, and reply ty to all the nh‘s they get.

But, sometimes you aren’t playing against a made hand or a drawing hand… sometimes (and off times when I bust out of an MTT) you are playing against both. …Am I to believe that you actually hit that backdoor flush while calling with second pair when the flop came two suited and I bet enough with TPTK to make that draw to your four flush a bad call? Nope… Oops. Am I to believe that you are suddenly raising me all in when I have two pair, you re-raised pre-flop, I bet that A,T,9 rainbow flop, a blank turn, and that river Jack helps you? Nope… Oops.

There are so many situations where your opponents hold “Something” and a possible “Big Something More” that calling a flop bet is correct. The turn may not help, but the pot odds due to the flop bet make another call about right for him, and the river puts you in denial…. “He couldn’t have called with that“, you say. Yes, he could, not with JUST that, but with THAT and something else, that little something that was good enough to call, and that possibility of that “Big Something” you don’t want to believe when it comes.

I know how to exploit this, I over bet when my “good enough to call hand” turns into the “drawing thin for the nuts” hand. Hey, I know they will call, I would. And, umm.. There-in lies the problem.

I don’t want to be fearful, I don’t want to see those monsters under the bed, I would like to understand the correlation between suited and high cards in a given combination and be able to understand when I am up against a redraw, a partial hand, and a good draw. When to push, and when to cautiously call. When there are more bets to be made and more bets to be lost. (Can I borrow someone’s omnipotent Jennie, or magic crystal ball please?).

I have reviewed my passing from competitor to railbird in my MTT’s. Short stack pushes, the usual 4:1 or better bad beats aside, this, by far is the egress sign I abhor. Weak-Tight when that river/turn gets scary may be a better bettor line for me. I just can’t seem to go there. Is this a discipline I need to learn?, a survival skill others have mastered, I too should accept? Is caution best? Or, are the monsters gone from under the bed?

[weevil]

It's been my overwhelming experience that those "wake-up" river bets represent the nuts or close to it. You have to realize that most of these weak players are making horrible flop and turn calls on crap draws, midpair with a gutshot straight or backdoor flush being the most common imo. So on the turn of the river when a fish who has been calling suddnely goes all in or comes over the top of you when the board pairs or fills a possible straight or flush, you have to lay it down.

Now there are many weak players who love to bluff too, as you've noted. They love the semi-bluff, but take it way to far, and sometimes they'll go for pure bluffs with nothing. These players are easy to spot as you seemed to note, and you have to simply treat them as non-entities for the most part and not fear their raises, though they too get hands. So, unless you've learned to not respect someones bet and yet you read them as a calling station of some sort, their bet usually means the best hand. Very few players are able to call on a draw and fire off all of their chips on a stone cold bluff when they miss their draw but recognize a useful scare card.

The issue gets clouded as you noted when these weak calling type players hit a good hand and a good draw and bet out. If they don't routinely bet midpair or semibluff, you give them credit for the a good hand and back off unless you can beat it. If the turn or the river is a scare card and they push aggressively, that probably helped them too. It all comes from knowing your opponent.

Be scared if the player is weak and predicatble, and fear a monster. Otherwise play your own cards and don't worry about it.