What are the odds for this ?

[BruceZ]

Heh, in this case we do want the odds of doing something so many times in a row, unlike the question on the other page.

If you are a 1 bb/hr player with sd = 10 bb/hr, then losing for an hour means being down 0.1 standard deviations which is 46% (assuming hourly results are normal). Losing 15 consecutive hours is (.46)^15 = 1 in 114,454. Only winning 1 in 20 is 20*(.54)(.46)^19 = 1 in 236,689.

Thanks for the replies.

I guess most recreational (winning) players will never encounter a streak like this during their lifetime, maybe not even professional players logging 2000h/year. After your replies I now know this is a streak that could actually happen but I think I'll stay out of that site for time being anyway. Don't feel comfortable with the never ending beats I got there. There's lots of sites out there where these things have never happened to me and I'll stick to them.

Thanks again for your calculations.