#27
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Hgher EV on prob #2
My strategy gives higher EV even if the guesser knows my strategy [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img]
I put low envelope as $2......128 times $4.......64 times $8.......32 times $16......16 times $32.......8 times $64.......4 times $128......2 times $256......1 time I actually multiply by 1.9999 not 2 so the guesser knows he can change with an edge (in case he screws me on level game) So what happens, guesser opens envelope with $32 in it. He knows this is the low envelope 4 times, and the high envelope 7.9999 times. He gets 2-1 his money on a swap and he is getting favourable odds, so he should swap. So on a non-$2, non $512 envelope, he swaps. $2 envelope will be opened 64 times from the 255 games. 0 EV 25.1% of the time $512 envelope will be opened 1 time in 510 games. 0 EV 0.2% of the time The other times we have a $66.67 EV, which is 74.7% of the time = $49.80 I think this tends towards $50.00 the more envelopes we are allowed (Maximum stuffing of 1,000,000 say) This would make logical sense as we have the difficult end of this bet so near 50% would be our best result. |
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