Ugly 99

[Professor Frink]

I agree that the river bet was wrong and thought i'd get flamed for it when i posted, but still not sure bout the flop.

Is the stop n go the superior play here?

[molawn2mo]

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Man, there is some really questionable advice sprouting up in this thread so far. Someone wants to checkfold this raggedy flop, because a Villian-TAG three-bet preflop?

Someone else said that they like the river bet, even though there is no way a better hand is folding, and the odds of Villian having and calling w/AK seem much worse than the odds of Villian having a better PP. Consequently, I would check and call the river, which will likely cost me a bet if Villian has AA/KK, save me a bet when he probably checks behind with JJ/QQ, and win me an extra bet on the occasional times when Villian has AK and thinks a bet here will push me off of my supposed AK.

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At the risk of inciting the powers that be...

my analysis discounted the possibility of AA/KK in Villain's range of hands due to Villain's lack of aggressiveness on the flop and turn or to reiterate in the form of a question... WIth AA/KK wouldn't you expect TAG to cap the flop and/or raise the turn. I think yes.

That said... I reduced Villain's range of hands to be JJ/QQ or overs. If so, wouldn't bet/call the river be appropriate?

[Aces McGee]

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That said... I reduced Villain's range of hands to be JJ/QQ or overs. If so, wouldn't bet/call the river be appropriate?

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Is the villain likely to call with overs?

What hands is he raising the river with (after hero 3 bet the flop and led the turn) that 99 beats?

-McGee

[molawn2mo]

"Is the villain likely to call with overs?"

He is more likely to call with overs then he is to raise w/JJ or QQ.

"What hands is he raising the river with (after hero 3 bet the flop and led the turn) that 99 beats?"

Unfortunately, I don't know that he is raising the river when I am first to bet. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Aces McGee]

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He is more likely to call with overs then he is to raise w/JJ or QQ.


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Perhaps. But he's not folding JJ or QQ either.

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Unfortunately, I don't know that he is raising the river when I am first to bet.

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Of course not. But betting with the intention of calling a raise if it comes is very rarely going to be right here.

-McGee

[molawn2mo]

What hand will villain hold that raises the river? Other than bluff, there are no river raises, here. That's the point. Betting out the river is for value.