Am I beat here?

krazyace5 · #1 01-11-2005, 05:51 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.5 BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

SB ($48.6)
BB ($72.83)
UTG ($42.5)
MP ($22.15)
Hero ($163.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, MP folds, Hero raises to $2.5, SB calls $2.25, BB folds.

Flop: ($5.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero raises to $6, SB raises to $9, Hero raises to $15, SB calls $6.

Turn: ($35.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $15, SB raises to $30, Hero calls $15.

River: ($95.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $1.1 (All-In), Hero calls $1.10.

Final Pot: $97.70

Benal · #2 01-11-2005, 06:01 PM

You tell me.

Pokerho · #3 01-11-2005, 06:04 PM

I'd guess there's a pretty real possibility he has trips, prolly 9s. He could be trying to bluff his way out of a spade flush draw, but I'd say trips is more likely.

Benal · #4 01-11-2005, 06:07 PM

Way way way to much info missing for anyone to make any resonable guess as to villans holdings.

amoeba · #5 01-11-2005, 06:09 PM

the min raises really screwed you.

how about raise to 10 on the flop, fold to reraise. if he calls and checks the turn, check behind him.

call a reasonable river value bet.

your other option is, call the flop. call the turn. bet the river.

ericlambi · #6 01-11-2005, 06:31 PM

On PP $25NL . . . odds are about 35-40% that you will win (IMO). He called your pre-flop raise, so he either has 99, 33, A9s, A3s, AT, AJ, AQ, AK. Some of them you beat, some of them you don't. Did you have a read at all on this players quality?

The more I think, the more I think the odds are even lower . . . 10-20%. Probably a set. I doubt he's playing like this with AT/AJ,AQ unless he is really terrible.

krazyace5 · #7 01-11-2005, 06:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You tell me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I thought I was ahead til the turn, but the reraise on the turn threw me off. But by then I was to far in to fold. Just wanted to see others thought processes through the hand to see if I am on the right track or not.

amoeba · #8 01-11-2005, 06:34 PM

I doubt odds are that high for hero winning. Yes, NL25 party players are looser, however that looseness preflop also enables them to more often pick up hands that beat Hero's TPTK.

I think 85% to 90% of the time, hero is beat.

ericlambi · #9 01-11-2005, 06:37 PM

I agree. I had already edited my post before reading your response.

nathanielt · #10 01-11-2005, 06:44 PM

I think you all give too much credit to players on party. Even at the 100NL, players get way too excited about flopping any pair of aces, regardless of kicker.