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Old 01-11-2005, 02:12 PM
Harv72b Harv72b is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Baltimore, MD
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Default Re: Can psychological factors turn a -EV play into a +EV play?

I know that nobody really cares for his book, but Phil Hellmuth gives a good example of this in Play Poker Like the Pros. In a big money game that Hellmuth used to play in regularly, there was a player who would sit down and, for his first two orbits at the table, raise every time the action got to him, regardless of his cards/holdings. The end result was that the usually tight players would open up a lot, and there was plenty of action at the table for hours after the "maniac" settled into his normal game. Advertising works, especially when you're up against the kind of players who will play more hands against a perceived weak player.

Just the other night I remember raising with AQs, betting the flop and turn inimproved, and then bet/calling unimproved on the river heads up. Of course I lost the hand, but 3 hands later when I was dealt KK, all of a sudden I had 4 players tagging along to the river with me on what had been a moderately tight table. Making the odd -EV play can be a very good play in the long run, providing your opponents will change their play because of it.
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