TPTK+Nut Flush draw v. a station

[kelvin474]

This is Party $25 NL 6max (.5 BB). I am the button. The SB is 70%VPIP and will call a pot bet on the flop almost all the time. I have $75 behind and he has $85.

Limper to me, I have A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and raise to $7, since this guy is likely to call out of position against a 14xBB raise, with a worse hand, such as suited OR connected OR face cards OR any pair. With any pair, I could see that possibly if he can stack me when he hits a set. But I digress. BB and Limper fold, Headsup to the flop of:

K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($15)

I'd hit it!!

Villain checks, I pot, villain calls after some hesitation.

Turn: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($45)

Villain checks, I push, he mucks.

I don't like my play now. At the time i was thinking scared that I wanted to shove him off some draw before i got beat or he hit a kicker or something.

Now, I think this is a situation where if I bet a decent size and he checkraises, I am def. behind, but i have 13 nut outs so i will have to call. I think the push overbet is going to make him fold hands that are worse, and he's going to call with the 2-pairs and sets. I should bet something that lets him call with stuff like KQ. KQ has to hit an Ace or 9 to win, and it can't be a heart. It has 6 outs against me so I would love for it to call half-pot bet. That may not save me much if he hits with an Ace on river since if he pushes the river i could still be ahead of a weaker 2-pair and would have to call this particular opponent. However, when he missed the river, I could probably get the rest of my stack in against him on the river with a bet, assuming his hand has showdown value.

Is this the right way to think, that there isn't anything he could have that needs the protection a push provides, that I should try something like half-pot here instead?

I keep thinking of this stuff after the hand is over. Reading posts to learn. Reading Reuben and Ciaffone too. Starting on Party 6max 25NL okay? I play 5-10 6max and 2-4 and 3-6 full in limit but not enough hands for the BB/100 #s to prove I am winning with very high confidence. The other stats and my reviews of the hands suggest I am a winning player at these limits however.

[PoBoy321]

When you're against a calling station, the worst thing you can do is make them fold. Value bet, value bet, value bet. I say throw out about another $20 on the turn then another $20 on the river. Just extract as much out of him as you can and if he ever wakes up, just fold. I've found that against weak/passive players, they only wake up with the nuts.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

Bet the pot on the turn, push to a raise. Bet the pot on the river if your still in the hand. These players will call you.

[AncientPC]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the pot on the turn, push to a raise. Bet the pot on the river if your still in the hand. These players will call you.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Pawtucket Pat]

I think you have to show this one down. You have so many outs going into the river it is ridiculous. What draw are you scared of? A straight draw is counterfeited by your hearts, and you have the nut flush draw. Can you really put him on AQ? Even if he has it, you're still in decent shape, but I wouldn't give him that much credit. He also has too few outs to hit his two-pair. He is in a bad very bad situation with a lower pair, and not a great one even if he has a set of twos. I would bet the 2/3 to 3/4 the pot on the turn, or the pot if you think he'll call it. If a blank hits on the river and you're still hesitant with just TPTK, then take the free showdown. Occassionally an unimaginative player will try something as boneheaded as check raising the river against a good player, but not very often. If he checks to you, you have to think your hand is good, so value bet it. These opponents are why I love NL so much, you force them to take terrible odds on their long-shot draws.