A unique 3-way situation (sorry, not a bizarre love triangle)

[Gramps]

$215 SNG on Party/Empire. For some reason, these are some of my favorite situations in SNGs. Note that in any 3-way pot, the shorter stack will have to beat both me and the big stack to not finish 3rd.

The last orbit, when the other short stack and I were forced all-in in the blinds, the big stack did fold his button.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (3 handed) converter

BB (t10)
Hero (t100)
SB (t9890)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero...????

Call or fold?

[partygirluk]

Lets say SB beat BB. If you fold you get second almost certainly. If you call you get second almost certainly, and slightly increase your chances of getting first, as you have an above average hand.

Lets say BB beats SB. If you fold then the BB is up to 30 next hand and you are down to 50 (There must be a 50 ante). So you will both be all in next hand. If the SB beats you both, then you still get second. If the BB beats you both, but you beat the SB then you are still (just) alive. If you call and the BB beats the SB but you beat the BB then you get second for sure, and increase your (minimal) chances of first). If the BB beats you and the SB, and the SB beats you, then you get third. If the BB beats you, but you beat the SB, the BB has 30, and you have 180.

The increased chance of coming first should not be that big a factor.

Calling works in the situation that the BB beats the SB, but you beat the BB + the BB would have won the next hand and you would not have made a miraculous comeback.

Folding works in the situation that the BB beats you and the SB, and the SB beats you.

Lets try and estimate the probability of the calling scenario. The probability that the BB beats the SB is 50%. Given that the BB beats the SB, I estimate the probability you would have beaten the BB as ~55%. So the probability of the BB beating the SB when you would have beaten them is ~28% The chance of the BB winning the next hand is 1/3 which makes the total probability ~9%. However, it is even less likely as even if the BB beats you next hand, you could still beat the SB and come back to win, so lets say it is ~7%.

Lets estimate how often folding works. The probability of the BB beating both the SB and you is ~28% as you have a decent hand. The probability of the SB beating you must be ~43% as you have an above average. However, the fact that the BB beat you decreases the chance of a K or 9 hitting the flop, thus increasing the chance the SB beats you. However, the BB also beat the SB, increasing the chance the SB did not hit the flop. So lets stick with the 43%. Which makes the total probability for this scenario ~ 11%

Since 11% > 7% I think folding is correct.

[DemonDeac Holding Rockets]

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Lets say BB beats SB. If you fold then the BB is up to 30 next hand and you are down to 50 (There must be a 50 ante). So you will both be all in next hand.

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There is no ante on party/empire tourneys.

i'd call cuz if you both lose you still get 2nd.

[Big Limpin']

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not a bizarre love triangle

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bummer [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[rachelwxm]

How do you end up like that? It must be a tough surviving battle of you and bb against sb big stack.

You are only fight for second at this point.

For 3 way allin, the only case you are worried is bb beat sb beat you. And the rest are almost same to you. So why take a 3 way all in first while you can wait for another 50% chance shot sb takes bb out before you take a 1/8 shot?

Easy fold. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]