Expert Odds analysis requested

Scuba Chuck · #1 01-07-2005, 10:41 AM

Could someone who has a good knowledge of odds and can verbalize this information, explain to me what I would need from an odds standpoint to be making the calls on this hand after the flop and after the river?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter

BB (t1380)
UTG (t1015)
MP1 (t1145)
MP2 (t783)
CO (t655)
Hero (t1600)
SB (t1422)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, Hero calls t50, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t150) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets t50, Hero calls t50, SB raises to t225, BB folds, Hero calls t175.

Turn: (t650) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets t275, Hero calls t275.

River: (t1200) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets t872 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: t2072

redeye3030 · #2 01-07-2005, 10:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Could someone who has a good knowledge of odds and can verbalize this information, explain to me what I would need
...snip...
after the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't need to be an odds expert to know that you have to fold to the river allin. You can't beat anything.

Scuba Chuck · #3 01-07-2005, 11:32 AM

Thanks for the expert river analysis REDEYE.

Now if anyone would like to talk about the flop and the turn, I'd appreciate it.

Phil Van Sexton · #4 01-07-2005, 11:42 AM

Neither call is justified by pot odds alone. On the flop and turn, you are getting about 3:1 on your call both times. You are 4:1 against hitting your flush on the next card.

The calls are probably justified by implied odds, but it's close. When you keep calling like this, the villian has to suspect a flush draw. If a 3rd heart does hit, you might not get paid off at all.

That being said, I'd probably call the turn. If the odds are close and I might end up with a ton of chips, I'm going to take a shot if I can afford it.

btw - On the flop, I would've raised to 200 to try to buy a free card on the turn. If SB check-raises allin, I'd have to fold.

PE101 · #5 01-07-2005, 11:48 AM

You’ve got 9 outs to get the flush on the turn (4.22:1 against), but if you add the 3 outs for another A (if you think that would win), then you’d have 12 outs (2.92:1 against).

If neither hits on the turn, then your 4.11:1 against the flush on the river, and 2.83:1 against the flush or Aces on the river.

The pot is T150 after the flop. You were okay calling the 50 after the flop, but didn’t have the pot odds to continue after the raise.

redeye3030 · #6 01-07-2005, 12:14 PM

heh sorry, I'm not an expert. I guess I should have mentioned that.

My layman advice is to not chase an obvious draw unless the pot odds are greatly in your favor. Calling t50 on the flop is ok, but I would fold to the check raise. The reason being is that most players won't pay you off with their entire stack when the flush does hit. The flush will hit about 30% of the time, the other 70% of the time you use 650 of your chips - close to 40% of your stack. In general I'd rather use my chips attempting to steal blinds then chasing flush draws with marginal pot odds.

AleoMagus · #7 01-07-2005, 01:37 PM

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The reason being is that most players won't pay you off with their entire stack when the flush does hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

In my experience, players who check raise the flop will pretty much always lose their stack when the flush comes. Just don't be surprised if they have redraws.

Regards
Brad S

binions · #8 01-07-2005, 02:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Could someone who has a good knowledge of odds and can verbalize this information, explain to me what I would need from an odds standpoint to be making the calls on this hand after the flop and after the river?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter

BB (t1380)
UTG (t1015)
MP1 (t1145)
MP2 (t783)
CO (t655)
Hero (t1600)
SB (t1422)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, Hero calls t50, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t150) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets t50, Hero calls t50, SB raises to t225, BB folds, Hero calls t175.

Turn: (t650) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets t275, Hero calls t275.

River: (t1200) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets t872 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: t2072

[/ QUOTE ]

I might have raised preflop here. But to the subject at hand:

Pot was 200 to you on the flop, and it was 50 to call. 4:1 pot odds. As others have said, you have 9 or 12 outs, depending on if the ace is good. Your call here is fine. In fact, you could have raised to drive out the SB and get a free card.

Now, the SB player raises 175, making the pot 475. You are getting 2.6:1 on this call. If you have 12 outs, you are 2.9:1, so this is a marginal call here, based on actual pot odds with one card to come.

However, the SB has 1000 more chips you can win, so the implied odds are high. If they guy was all in, I'd say fold. But with this many chips to win, and a chance he doesn't bet the turn for some reason (ie giving you a free card), I call here.

On the turn, he bets 275, making the pot odds 925:275, or 3.4:1. Again, not enough for a simple flush draw, but enough for a 12 out draw. Again, he has 700 chips left, so implied odds still high. A call is fine.

Note: you never raised the whole hand. Draws win one of two ways: you get the field to fold with a bet, or you hit your draw. You never gave yourself the first chance to win.

Scuba Chuck · #9 01-07-2005, 06:32 PM

Binions, thanks for the analysis. Could you discuss a little more some of the specifics on your raising? Like how much and where. I'd like to hear your thoughts.
Thanks in advance.
Scuba

The Yugoslavian · #10 01-07-2005, 06:49 PM

A half-sized pot bet seems pretty good IMO. It's a good semi-bluff -- you're either winning the pot, blocking a big bet, buying a free card, or allowing your opponent to raise you big in which case you can get away from your hand easily. If you win the pot 1 out of 3 times outright with a half pot bet then your CEV breaks even and you have plenty of equity (9-12 outs) if you get called.

It is generally a good idea to raise on the flop to find out where you stand in any event. I only like check/calling against a known maniac when you have a made hand or a monster.

For this particular situation since there was a min-raise in front of you I'd put in a bit more than 50% of the 200 chip pot -- say 125. Now your opponent has to commit to a course of action and give up information about his hand.

Yugoslav