JJ capped then action stopped on rag flop?

[royaltrux]

Raise the flop. I think this is in line with what SSH says and what the post by Miller (the one about why we aren't crushing micro limit games) said awhile back.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
arghh im so confused. i dont see why betting the flop is good here? i dont think JJ is good,

[/ QUOTE ]

If you sincerely don't think JJ is good, then you should fold since you're drawing to only two outs.

The reason why folding is terrible is because you are ahead here a large proportion of the time. You are trailing only AA, KK, and QQ. Granted, you might be behind one of these hands, and if so raising costs you an extra bet. But you also might be up against AQ, AJ, KQ, etc., and in that case you want to get your money in while you're ahead.

Failing to raise this is very weak-tight IMO.

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

Any reads? They're really helpful for hands like this. If SB and BB are wacko, or a least loose, raise the flop. If they're tight, I might go so far as to fold to the flop bet because I'm not getting odds to spike a J on the turn. As a default though, I am probably raising this flop for information. If no one 3-bets the flop I will bet the turn. If the flop gets 3-bet I will call and fold the turn unimproved.

[Kasumeat]

Against normal LPPs, is it bad to fold preflop when it's two back to me? I probably wouldn't, but I'd strongly consider it. You have to figure you're up against an overpair at least half of the time here, and if not, you're probably going to have to dodge all 3 overcards postflop.

[ugly24]

I think the flop is a clear case of "You can fold/call/raise and calling is the worst of the three." Here's how I see it:
Assume you are behind, the only way to improve is to catch your J. You are 22.5:1 to catch your J on the turn, so in order for you to have odds to make this you will need to build the pot to 22.5SB or more. When its your turn to act there are 14SB in the pot. In order to get to 22SB you will need to get 2BB from each of these players on the turn and the river (2BB each = 4BB = 8SB). I think its a stretch to think that they are both going to call raises from you on both streets if you call the flop and then when the J hits you raise. They could be that bad... but I doubt both of them will pay you off. AND even if they both pay you off you are still 0.5SB short of actually getting correct odds to break even. If you think you are behind you can't call hoping to catch up.

Lets say that SB has AK and BB has AQ. Each of them has 4 cards that will beat you so the villains would be getting correct odds (10.75:1) to call 1 bet so their play is good (SB bets adding a slight fold equity to his +EV 1bet) and BB calls getting correct odds. If you call you let them get away with this. If you raise, now they have to invest a 2nd SB to win 15 or 16SB so they get 8:1 odds to see the turn. Add to this that a raise here says PP for sure so perhaps they have QQ and will fold thinking you have AA or KK (not likely) or perhaps they have TT or 99 and decided to play them aggressively and when the flop went bricks they're hoping that 2 opponents are playing Ax.
Folding here isn't terrible, but I would raise, see what happens (as others have suggested a 3-bet really puts the heat on and I think you have to seriously think about folding or maybe toss the last SB in and see what the turn brings, but better to lose 2SB because of a raise/reraise on the flop than 2 or 3 BB after the flop.

Once you get to the river I think trying to see a showdown for 1 bet makes sense.

Play Well
[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]The Ugly One [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[Rico Suave]

MissOT:

I think you played this one well. Including the flop call and river bet.


--Rico