1/2 stars hand

[Siawyn]

Posting this from work.. figures are approximate. $1/$2 NL game on stars.

I have about $250 in front of me, villian about $200.

1 limper, villian is on the button and limps, I complete in the SB with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and the BB checks.

Flop comes A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

$8 in the pot. Checked around to the button, who fires out $10. I call, big blind and other limper goes away. Button has always bet when checked to him in this game, but nobody has looked him up so far. Yet he hasn't been way out of line as far as I can tell.

Turn 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

$28 in the pot. I check, button fires out $20, I call.

River 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

$68 in the pot. I check, button fires out $60, I think for a while and call.

Thoughts? Results and my thought process on all streets to follow later.

[FourKing Hell]

I'm assuming you had some good reason not to raise preflop..

If the button often bets, even past the flop, he might well be pushing an AT, maybe AJ that he thinks is good. Either that, or two pair, or a set, or two spades, possibly including the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]... You can't know for sure because you didn't raise! But let's assume he's loose and you're ahead by far most of the time.

I can see checking the flop vs. betting, especially because a SB bet could represent a lot of hands better than AK, and you don't want that if you want action.

Assuming the button is persistent in his betting, checking the other streets is OK too. Theory of Poker, check/call when he bets more than he calls, you probably read it.

However, I have seen very few players who would continue to value bet top pair, even with a fairly decent kicker such as a Queen, until the river. Much less for a full pot-sized bet. So maybe I'd check-minraise the turn, and bet likehalf-pot on the river, hoping he has an ace and will call you down. However, I wouldn't be surprised if your villain had you beat on the river.

A lot of this guesswork could have been eliminated by raising before the flop. If Villain does this with AJ/AT, your way probably got you more money. But it's a risky proposition, and you'll have to discount the money you lose when he does have you beat. I'm not sure if you'd come out ahead in the end.

[greg nice]

i like this line but you have to pray a spade doesnt fall or youre in a tough spot. if hes got a set of 6's well bad luck. i think you get the most out of a weaker ace this way.

[mythrilfox]

Interesting line, and one that I think is completely read dependent, and should probably only be attempted in a live game. I think raising preflop would have eliminated the ambiguity.

Button likely limped with a drawing hand such as A3d or 68h. The question is whether or not he would continue betting with hands like A4d or a missed draw like A4s. I think he checks behind here with top pair weak kicker, and since he raises preflop with any other reasonable hand you beat (AQ, AJ, AT), he's only betting with a spade bluff or a made hand, which is why I think you have to fire in a raise or take the lead somewhere. Probably the flop, as the pot can quickly get out of control on other streets. I don't know what's better though, check/calling the flop and leading the turn, or check/raising the flop and leading the turn.

[Siawyn]

I had the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] myself, which was a little bit of the reason I took the line I did.

I am reluctant to raise AK from the blinds because of position considerations... but furthermore the chances that one of the limpers had some sort of ace themselves wanted me to keep them into the hand. I probably raise it a third of the time.. play it very softly the other times. Position really sucks sometimes.

On the flop I really didn't want to lead out.. like you said, it can represent a lot of other hands better than AK at that point and I'd rather see if the auto-better will do it for me. I almost considered check-raising here on the flop but I think 90% of the time I have the best hand here by far because a) he'll always bet and b) even if he does have a hand, most of the time it's still lesser than mine.

I checked on the turn because I felt this card was pretty unlikely to help his hand, if he had any. There are very few cards I fear here -- even a spade isn't bad as I have redraws to the nut flush now. Actually the few cards I might fear would be a Q, J or T non spade. But I was willing to let him draw to a 3 outer in that case. Given that most people would expect AK to have raised preflop, I dont think he can put me on that hand and assumes his ace is good here and is value betting it.

The river is when I had to stop and really re-evaluate how this hand had went down. It seemed like much more than a value bet by AQ/AJ/AT, didn't it? After all, villian is only going to get called by a better hand. Yet villian is presumably unaware that I just limped with AK here and also of note is that a 3rd spade did not fall on the river.

[greg nice]

[ QUOTE ]

The river is when I had to stop and really re-evaluate how this hand had went down. It seemed like much more than a value bet by AQ/AJ/AT, didn't it? After all, villian is only going to get called by a better hand. Yet villian is presumably unaware that I just limped with AK here and also of note is that a 3rd spade did not fall on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea that river bet sure looked scary. at first i thought maybe he has A6 suited and flopped two pair. but thats the risk of taking this line.

[Jonny]

Not bad. But I would play it differently.

I'd probably call the flop and lead the turn.
Or call the flop and c/r the turn, if you think he will definately bet again. You have to charge him if he's semibluffing.

[ericlambi]

This is a really interesting hand. My first thought was that the villain had AT-AQ, but then I figured he would have raised pre-flop -- maybe no raise with AT or AJ, I guess that's a personal preference. He obviously doesn't want the flush draw to catch-up, and I'm sure that's what he assumes you are on. My bet is that he limped with a weak ace and hit two pair, or limped with a small pair and hit his set, and is trying to charge the flush draw. He could be on something like AT or AJ, but I have a hard time believing he would bet such a hand so strongly if he is a decent player. I guess my line is that it's possible he's on a weaker ace, but I think you are usually beat here, and wish you would have raised the flop or the turn to get a better idea. It's really difficult to say with this action.

Looking forward to the outcome.

[Siawyn]

I'll rehash a bit of what I said in the previous post.

Preflop: AKo, small blind.. if I hit a flop it's well disguised and a weaker ace can pay me off. The fact that the button was that particular player gave me a little more reason to limp in here. Even if the flop came AAK he would be betting it for me.

Flop: Pretty much ideal flop. Since I wanted the button to bet for me.. I checked. Blinds betting out on a flop can represent a hand stronger than AK there, which I don't want. Thought about a check-raise on the flop, but most of the time he has nothing, and even if he does have something, a lot of times my something is better than his something. Why ruin his illusion now?

Turn: Fairly safe card and my thinking hasn't changed a bit here. If he does have a AT-type hand (hopefully not A8!), he'll fire another shot at it I'm sure. I really considered check-raising here. The more I thought about it, I realized if he called I'd be in a quandary on the river as to how much to bet and would be building a bigger pot with just TPTK. I hadn't seen this guy not continue to fire barrels at a pot when he was the aggressor, so I decided to just check-call here. This is a play that on the surface I hate.. I prefer to bet or raise.

River: My feeling hadn't really changed when I saw this card. If he was behind, this card didn't help him at all. My gut feeling was I had to look this guy up, that more than half the time he did not have a better hand than me here. So how do I get the most chips out of him? If I bet and he has nothing, he folds. If I bet and he had a hand like AT, he'll probably call a modest bet of $20-$30 or so on the river. If I bet and he did have a monster, I'd just get min-raised and probably have to pay it off with the price I was getting laid, although I would give serious consideration to folding.

But what if he was bluffing? What if he had a hand that he felt was weaker than one I might be check-calling him down with? He would definitely bet there, because that's the only way he could pick up the pot, and I hadn't shown any real strength up to this point.

When he fired out the $60 on the river I had to go back and re-evaluate my thought process. That was a bigger bet than I had expected. So I had to consider the types of hands he might have had here.

1) Weaker suited ace.. one that he only had top pair with. If he felt I had a similiar weak ace, this would be one way to move me off it.

2) 2 pair hand or a set. If he had limped with 86 and turned 2 pair, he just got counterfeited. Certainly an A8/A6/A3 were possible. A set, and he was milking me although the river bet would seem a bit strong.

3) Busted flush draw that didn't get there. This one really crossed my mind, and in fact entered my mind on the turn. Given that I had the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] that reduced his outs by one and that I was comfortable with folding on the river if the flush hit, I was willing to let him draw to it because I suspected he would bluff anyways if he missed.

But then I moved to level 3. I knew what cards I had. I considered what I thought he had. But what about what did he think *I* had? I had played the hand with no aggression whatsoever... and the realization came to me that he might have put me on the flush draw! His 2 cards wouldn't even matter here, because if he had a hand like KQ, he could just blow me off the pot by betting there since if I missed my draw I would have to fold. Yet his bet would have to be big enough to be consistant with previous streets, and dissuade me from calling with a piece of the board that would beat him.

It wasn't that I was positive that he indeed had nothing and was trying to blow me off the hand, but I had to consider that option as well. So I was facing a $60 bet into a pot of $128. I could be wrong 2 times in 3, and still be making a slightly +EV call. My gut told me that it about 50/50 that I had the best hand at this point.. even if was slightly less, basic pot odds dictated a call. Finally, I also had to consider that nobody had called him completely down yet. Until done so, he would feel free to pick up every pot that he kept leading at. I'm not much into "sending messages" but if he didn't have it, it would definitely force him to put on the brakes. Part of the call would be for information then.

Even with that said I was still pleasantly surprised when villian flipped up QTo and I took the pot.