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#14
01-05-2005, 01:31 AM
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Re: T 9 suited...when do you lay it down?
[ QUOTE ]
Help me out on this. Why raise preflop in MP1--because he opens the betting? [/ QUOTE ] Reading comprehension, mi amigo. Raise the flop (not preflop). 
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#16
01-05-2005, 01:35 AM
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Re: T 9 suited...when do you lay it down?
[ QUOTE ]
Crap, I thought I stealth-edited that correctly. You told him that folding preflop was incorrect. Should that still be a call? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, calling preflop is correct.
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#18
01-05-2005, 02:22 AM
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Re: T 9 suited...when do you lay it down?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i'm all for raising the flop, try and knock out overcards here, you likely have the best hand at the moment on this board, but its very vulnerable raise the turn as well [/ QUOTE ] CO and SB are getting 8-1 to call a turn raise here, and the other two aren't going anywhere. I don't think this raise accomplishes much but setting us up for a c/r on a scary turn. -d [/ QUOTE ] uh that assumes the CO and SB both call the flop raise cold, which may or may not happen .. once we change Hero's actions its difficult to say with great certainity what the others would do since the SB only had overcards he prob folds a solid % of the time, thats what the flop raise was supposed to do fold overcards .. to protect your pair the cutoff might release the TT(doubtful he won't call on the flop but you never know) when the ace hits and we maintain the aggression ... couple new things i guess you were talking about the flop when you said 8to1 on calling the raise .. its a little worse as the BB might 3bet ... based on how the CO played he looks to be a pretty weak player
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#19
01-05-2005, 11:20 AM
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Re: T 9 suited...when do you lay it down?
Earlier, I wrote:
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] After the turn I gave myself 14 outs. Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Flop: (12 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Turn: (8.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I see the 9 outs for the club-flush draw, and 2 more outs to make trip-9's as a possible winner. Even the club-flush isn't a solid winner, though, since any K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in an opponent's pocket could nuke Hero's flush. But ignoring that, I still only see the 11 outs total. Does Hero consider the 3 Aces as possible outs, which would make only two-pair (A's and 9's)? I see from the hidden results that two-pair A's and 9's would've won, but Hero couldn't know that at the turn and I didn't think counting cards making only two pair as outs was a reasonable assumption. [/ QUOTE ] More replies gave betting advice but only one responded to my question with the suggestion that Hero is counting 10's as well. That would make 17 outs with the Aces, even though I disagree that either two-pair (AA99x or TT99x) are certain winners. I still don't understand where Hero's alleged 14 outs are coming from. Anyone?
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#20
01-05-2005, 11:53 AM
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Re: T 9 suited...when do you lay it down?
Raise the flop to try and drive out the gutshot draws, who are getting 11:1. You have a backdoor flush and str8, plus current top pair (though weak) and decent kicker.
Turn gives you 9 outs to the flush, 2 outs to trips, 2 more outs (which you should discount) to two pair with As (assuming at the time no one had an ace), and 3 outs to the 10 for middle 2 pair. You probably have 14-15 outs (depending on how you discount, so why not raise? SB raised PF but has been quiet, so I would figure the flop missed him and he had a drawing hand that missed (which could include AK, AQ, AJ). Why fold for 1 bet with such a big pot on fifth street? If you think you have a chance to win this type of hand 1/15 times (7% or so), you should bet it for 1 bet.
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