How tough is it to clear the TruePoker signup bonus?

[D. Andrew]

UB's rake at 2-4 and 3-6 (I do not know about the other games) is much higher than Party's.

[Subby]

[ QUOTE ]
As I understand it, bonuses are "cleared" as you play hands. Now suppose a player, just takes a seat and never plays a hand other than their blinds. (This could be done by automatically folds and blinds for example). Would this be the fastest way to bring money into the bank? If so, could this money then be transferred into a NetTeller account? Also, if this is legitimate, what kind of game would move the fastest so the money can be cleared to fastest.


[/ QUOTE ]

For example, let's say you got a $100 bonus that you have to play 700 raked hands to clear. For arguments sake, you are going to clear at 1/2 and it will take 1000 total hands.

Each orbit costs you $1.50, assuming your approach. You will need 100 orbits to achieve 700 raked hands, at a total cost of $150. This is an extreme example, obviously, but illustrates why your approach wouldn't work.

A real world example would be 300 unraked hands at Plex for $50. You need 30 orbits at 1/2 to clear and pay $1.50 per orbit. In the end you pay $45 to win $50 - a scant $5 difference - hardly worth it under any situation.

Probably better off going with a "top-10" hands approach.

[tripdad]

[ QUOTE ]
the games move so slowly at True, that it seemingly takes forever to get any bonus. it feels like i played 2 tables for at least 3 hours playing $3/6 and $4/8 to notice i had cleared a whopping $10 bonus. i had also e-mailed support about a promo they had offered, and heard absolutely nothing back from them...it's been about 2 weeks now.

i cashed out having released only $10 worth of bonus.

***please note, i may be wrong about the number of hours i played, but it sure felt like i would have played around 600 hands at Empire if i 4-tabled***

cheers!

[/ QUOTE ]

i checked my history/stats today...i played 399 hands there a couple weeks ago, and only cleared $10 of bonus. i was 39 "true points" away from clearing another $10 when i bolted. these hands were played at $4/8 and $3/6 short tables, with the exception of maybe 40 hands at $2/4 full ring. i think i cashed out with $160 more than i deposited, so the games are pretty soft it seems, or i was getting hit with cards pretty good(not likely). [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

cheers!

[richrf]

Hi Subby,

Got it. Thanks for the help.

Rich

[playersare]

subby's analysis is correct.

the rake/bonus structures I analyzed do not take into account the profit and loss from your actual playing. for control group purposes, the NET earnings I listed assumed break even results at all sites and limits.

if you fold every hand and lose your blinds every 10 hands, then you have to factor in an additional 0.75 BB's of loss every orbit, or 4.5BB's every hour, per table.

how much this impacts against the bonus depends on what limits you are playing. by not participating in hands you of course do not have a rake penalty on pots which you never win, so the blind losses become your new fixed cost.

Here's how richf's proposal holds up under a variety of bonus structures and fixed limit ring games (60 hands per hour of which 50 are raked):

50c/$1 - BLIND LOSS $4.50
Party Poker (5 raked hands/$1 bonus) - $10 bonus = NET +$5.50
Party Poker (7 raked hands/$1 bonus) - $7 bonus = NET +$2.50
Absolute/Pacific (10 RH/$1 bonus) - $5 bonus = NET +$0.50

$1/2 - BLIND LOSS $9
Party Poker (5) - $10 bonus = NET +$1
Party Poker (7) - $7 bonus = NET (-$2)
Absolute/Pacific - $5 bonus = NET (-$4)

$2/4 - BLIND LOSS $18
Party Poker (5) - $10 = NET (-$8)
Party Poker (7) - $7 = NET (-$11)
Absolute/Pacific - $5 bonus = NET (-$13)

**higher limits presumably and exponentially less profitable

so perhaps it's possible to just fold everything at 50c/$1 and still make a theoretical profit. however, you will probably make MORE money per hour by actually playing, because the previously calculated rake loss for small pots (<$12) at party poker is only $3 an hour vs. $4.50 blind loss.

And more than likely, you will win more than the control group 10% of all hands against those fish anyway, on top of the rake/bonus profit. while this increases your actual rake loss amount per hour, it is obviously overcome many times by the actual amount of the additional pots you win.

also note that the Party Poker 5RH/$1 structure is generally only for new signups and special 'invite'-only reloads like the "COMPBONUS" everyone went nuts over last month. generally speaking, you will be working with the 7RH/$1 deal which is worth a maximum of $2.50 an hour per table using the all-fold strategy vs. $4+ and hour actually playing and winning.

the rest of the theory relies on being able to mass-automate play on the party program itself, which is a topic I can't really speak on myself, nor do I necessarily want to encourage.

[richrf]

Thanks playersare for the extra analysis. I pretty much understand the structure now. Appreciate yours and subbys explanations.

Rich