How much to bet on the river

[SossMan]

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What hand could a good player play like that?

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mistake #1.

Also, following through like this sets up future value bets when you have the nuts.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

540 is certainly the best choice. However, you expect him to fold all busted draws to that bet. In some cases, especially if you know the opponent and he might fall for this, bet a small amount. Now, betting the minimum of 15 is ridiculously low, but for 100 he might decide that you're on a draw, and hoping he was also on a draw, and this is a weak bluff attempt on the river. This might inspire him to check-raise all-in and win you a much bigger pot.

However, your first choice should just be all-in, and hope he has a 9x and will call.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[SossMan]

I would have to have a read that he is pretty aggro for me to try this play, Greg.

The standard play vs. the random guy should be the all in, right?

[tiger7210]

I have a difficult time putting him on a hand other than a pair with an Ace high flush draw. In a spot like this, if I know I'm willing to get all of my chips in with a push I generally try to squeeze a bit more out of him by betting half my stack (270) chips hoping he either calls and I get a bit more or he reraises me say A9 thinking I'm making a weak bluff on a missed draw of my own. This way when he see's how much is in the pot he may be more tempted to call knowing that if he loses he still has chips left to play another hand. I've found that unless the player is really a weak player he's probaly not going to call off his remaining chips here with just a pair. It's always hard to tell exactly how much more you can squeeze out of him, but unless I know he'll call my all in which in this case I don't get that feeling, or I think he would have pushed the river himself, I'm squeezing as much out of him as I can while still leaving him some hope to stay alive in the tourny.

[davidross]

I'm glad to hear these answers, I've been wondering about my play. I made the near pot sized bets trying to discourage draws, but I wondered about the river bet. I couldn't put him on a hand either, and in those cases I often check behind on the river, but decided that I was giving him too much credit, so I did push. He called with 88 and I was done very early. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[binions]

The weak lead works on many players.

They certainly call it with many second best hands, and it turns into a value bet for u.

Sometimes they reraise u with the worst hand, sensing weakness.

Sometimes they fold, smelling something fishy.

If you don't think the other guy will call 540, try a weak lead.

[dr_zorba]

Probably no one will read this, it's so late in the thread, but hopefully someone who responded will see it and help me out. (Especially my hero, FossilMan.)

During the first level of my MTTs (delete a zero from the entry fee), my first 100 chips are for buying cheap Flops and hoping-to-get-lucky against an aggressive chump betting dead money. When I read the problem, the only rational hand for Op I could imagine was 88 or 44, since I would bet those hands exactly the same as Op. Therefore, following the oldtimer's rule, don't make a bet that won't be called unless you're beat, I checked on the river without further thought.

Since it's obvious from everyone pushing in that I really misunderstand something basic about MTT, can anyone explain exactly what was bad about the Check-Calling with a flopped set?

[davidross]

What you are missing here is that there are plenty of hands that will call the river bet though, JJ, TT, 99, A9s. There are a lot of bad plays made early in these tournaments so someone calling all the way isn't necessarily suspicious.

[DonButtons]

If he's check/calling you all the way down, usually its some kind of draw. With that safe river, I would bet a small ammount, something that the other stack will think if he comes over the top that you will fold. So 100 sounds fine here.

The only problem is you might of missed a bigger bet if he's calling you down with top pair or a smaller pair.

So its all on your gut feeling, if he's on a draw, small bet, and if you think he has like TPTK, you push.

But it the beginning, its like a 50/50, with no reads, a push might be better, but lots of people chase early.

[dr_zorba]

Thanks for replying, David. I have much respect for you and have learned a lot from your posts.

So what you're saying, then, IN THE EARLY ROUNDS, is that if I flop a set against a great player who holds QQ, I will always bust him if I simply check-call through the whole hand and the board remains unscary. And the corollary: If someone flops a set against my QQ, I am always going broke.

Is that correct? If so, later in the tournament, same type of board, when Op gives your QQ two check-calls, do you still push in ?

edited addendum: Does it matter if it's a Freezeout?