What do you think of this Gus Hansen play?

[bigredlemon]

I think it was the fact he Esfandiari bet so little (practically a min raise) that made Gus felt it was a weak hand. Gus had been re-raising every limper so a small raise might be the equivalent of a limp at that table.

On the other hand, Esfandiari might have had a monster and used a weak lead to trap Gus. I don't think Gus believed he had a monster since Gus kept saying "I only have T high, which is why I have to call" implying that he felt Esfandiari only had a low pair or else two high cards, giving Gus two clean outs.

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
he knows he is rather unlikely to face QQ+ pairs because that preflop allin didn't seem to want a call. he felt that he was against smaller PPs or unpaired high cards because of the way he played his hand(small raise/ over the top allin). on top of that, Antonio was pretty much only big competition he had, and winning this pot will give him huge chance to take it home as he will have over 7:1 chip lead against others. given near 2:1 pot odds, he calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

bingo.
i was watching this with a friend who knows only a little about hold em, and i had a hard time explaining to him why it wasn't as crazy as it seems. i pretty much said the same thing, with a preface of course that i would probably not make the same play.

they are both very aggressive players, and he knows that antonio knows that he could be raising with any two, and so he knows that antonio does not need a monster to make that play.
therefore he has to broaden the range of possible hands that antonio could have, and thefore the odds needed for him to call are much closer.

also the fact that it is a winner take all event certainly contributed to the decision.

even if antonio opens AK before gus calls, he should still call.

[zaxx19]

But Esfandiari KNOWS hansen has odds to call here AND he knows Hansen can smell traps with AA and KK. You guys need to take it to third stage thinking here they are are already there. Take out KQs here it is way dead against AK and AQ and Esfandiari knows that. I think a real range takes it a lil under 30%(just a guess) if it wasnt all or nothing I believe Hansen folds....with that structure he calls bc with that stack he is like 70% to win if he sucks out.

[x_Gamblor_x]

So what happened at showdown?

[wray]

I think he's thinking that he either wants a big chip lead quick or he wants to go play in another game that will get him more cash in much less time.

[samurai_tony]

well my opinion is that it is a terrible play, if he's not going to fold why not move in ? i he thinks he can outplay the man why not call and see a flop, does he think that the best opportunity for winning the tournament is to go all in for 30 + bb with t8s ? i can see everyone trying to justify this play but to me it seems just appaling and im sure if anyone else had done it they would be shouted at for such a foolish play. If he is willing to call this for 30 bb then i have little clue as to what you lay down, saying there is only one prize doesnt make much sense as surely you always aim to win the tournament and play accordingly rather than head for second ?

[eurythmech]

Interesing post, but really...under 30%?
Wouldn´t it be profitable play for Antonio to play a pretty broad range of hands here? I mean, he is up against Gus after all, and like it has been said, he could be playing almsot any two cards here. And with that in mind, it should be +EV for Antonio to go all-in more often than against say, Dewey Tomko, no?

[eurythmech]

[ QUOTE ]
saying there is only one prize doesnt make much sense as surely you always aim to win the tournament and play accordingly rather than head for second ?

[/ QUOTE ]

It makes a lot of sense to talk about only one prize. In poker you need to take into account all winnings. And if first place pays $25k and second pays $15k and third pays $10k, it would be very foolish to say "I don´t care if I win $15k, it´s the same as zero to me".

[zaxx19]

I think he's thinking that he either wants a big chip lead quick or he wants to go play in another game that will get him more cash in much less time.

Why ?? From what I hear he is usually a net loser when he plays really big ring games....did you hear different??

[BarronVangorToth]

I think it's very possible he had a perfect read on Antonia and knew him to have a pair 77's or smaller -- and he therefore made the correct call, knowing that only 1st paid off.

Non traditional, sure, but isn't everything Gus does non traditional?


Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com