Do you get stacked with QQ vs AA/KK every time on Party? (help pls) - Page 2

alexbrew · #11 01-02-2005, 02:01 AM

You have a 1/220 chance at AA in your hand. That's every single time you get dealt in. Not exactly ONCE every 220 times you get a hand. You can get AA five times in a row (and lose all five times). It's meaninless. It's a statistical oddity that won't even be noticable over the course of 500,000 hands dealt (which is what twodimes uses for probability; probably a good sample). You also may not see AA for another 2000 hands, too bad, just a bad run of cards.

Casinos doubled their roulette revenue by puting a board up showing the most recent roll results. People actually think the past can help them decifer the future -- Red has hit 4 times in a row, black is DUE or it must be rigged.

That's not how roulette works, and other than calculating your outs, that's not how cards work either.

adanthar · #12 01-02-2005, 02:09 AM

Huh? I honestly have no idea what you just wrote.

OK, look. The odds of AA being dealt to you are .045 or .45%. Multiply that by 10 - each person has the same chance - and you get 4.5%. That's a little under 1/22 for the table.

That's not quite right if you want KK v. AA because if you have KK there's only 46 non-aces in the deck but only 9 players are left to get aces. To sum it up the odds of AA v. KK when one person is holding kings are about 4%.

Thing is, over this last year you've played, say, 50,000 hands and by rights should've gotten AA about 230 of them (give or take 20-30.) If you hadn't gotten kings beat by aces ten to a dozen times by now (add in queens and jacks to kings and queens, plus AA-QQ to KK-JJ, and it's well over a hundred), I'd be highly surprised.

And no, you don't get dealt big pairs more often (or less often) online. Any number of PT databases can tell you that.

alexbrew · #13 01-02-2005, 02:27 AM

The odds depend on your sample size. To even it out though, I haven't seen it happen in a while, so you're getting all the fun at your tables.

I have been eliminated from my last two tables with KK vs underpair. Odds of that are 4%. Ick. Maybe this means I'm due. lol

cferejohn · #14 01-02-2005, 02:44 AM

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The odds depend on your sample size.

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No they don't. Your distribution and standard deviation depend on your sample size, but your odds of getting AA are 1/220 (and someone at a full table getting ~1/22), no matter what your sample size is.

JJKillian · #15 01-02-2005, 02:55 AM

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The odds depend on your sample size.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

No they don't. Your distribution and standard deviation depend on your sample size, but your odds of getting AA are 1/220 (and someone at a full table getting ~1/22), no matter what your sample size is.

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think what he meant is your odds can be off if you just base it on samples if your sample size isn't large enough.

JJ