KK Hand....should I slow down

WSOP Bound · #1 12-31-2004, 03:02 PM

MP2 is very LAG, CO joined the table 1 orbit ago and seems reasonable so far.

Ultimate Bet 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, Hero caps, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 folds, CO calls.

The ace worries me slightly, should I check and see what action comes back, or bet out here?

Turn: (7.70 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

I have to think I'm beat here and should probably go into call down mode, but I have a hard time putting CO on a hand that beats me here. AK, AQs or 77 are the only hands that I can imagine. Should I put the brakes on here?

River: (9.70 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero ???

COs call on the turn still seemed weak, so I figured I might be good. The raise tells me I'm cooked, probably going to see A7 or something else that will make me cringe. But that said, is there any way that I should lay this down? Am I good less than 10% of the time here?

shadow29 · #2 12-31-2004, 03:04 PM

Hero calls.

nice hand.

DeathDonkey · #3 12-31-2004, 03:12 PM

I would fold. I also would have checked and called the river. The rest is fine.

-DeathDonkey

shadow29 · #4 12-31-2004, 03:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold. I also would have checked and called the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's really weak, imo.

Entity · #5 12-31-2004, 03:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would fold. I also would have checked and called the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's really weak, imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think betfolding is bad at all. Betcalling is really really close, but most people are calling for sanity moreso than because the odds are in their favor.

Calling to snap off a bluff-raise would probably be ok if there were some sort of draw on the board that would explain why he called the flop and the turn. As is, though, what is he calling the flop and the turn with and then raising a bet on the river, when he is likely expecting you to call?

I definitely don't like checkcalling, because I think you're beat over 90% of the time when you check-call, unless villain is an amazing LAG.

Rob

DeathDonkey · #6 12-31-2004, 03:19 PM

Name one reasonable hand we beat on the river? None? That means we can only beat a bluff. If he's going to bluff let him bluff, check and call.

FWIW I played these UB quarters games for many months, they just don't bluff raise the river. Without a read I would fold. But I wouldn't have been in this situation because I would have checked on the river.

-DeathDonkey

shadow29 · #7 12-31-2004, 03:25 PM

Ok. Didn't know this was UB. At Party .5/1 I definetly call that. Why? They don't have reasonable hands!

Anyway, I think you're good enough 8% of the time to make the call.

And I actually misread your post. I thought you wrote check/fold.

DeathDonkey · #8 12-31-2004, 03:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I definitely don't like checkcalling, because I think you're beat over 90% of the time when you check-call, unless villain is an amazing LAG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are we betting the river hoping he has precisely QQ, JJ, TT, 88? What else could he have that he will call with that we beat? The 7 just paired, making it even worse. I would check and pray he checks a mediocre ace through. I agree if he bets the river we aren't winning very many, but I don't think if we bet and he calls we are winning any more. Our fold equity here is nonexistent and this is not a value bet. So why are we betting this river?

Put it this way, I want to see a showdown, but I would prefer check and fold over betting.

-DeathDonkey

WSOP Bound · #9 12-31-2004, 03:35 PM

This seems to be exactly the case to me. Given the size of the pot and my previous action I don't see how I can let go of this pot and fold it even if he doesn't check through. That said I don't see the benefit of the raise. There are few hands that seem reasonable and beatable here, and no matter what he's holding it's obvious by now that he's not folding. Check/Call is sounding reasonable here to me.

WSOP Bound · #10 12-31-2004, 06:01 PM

Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.70 BB

Hero has Kh Kc (two pair, kings and sevens).
CO has 4d 7d (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: CO wins 13.70 BB. 

So much for the read of reasonable!!! But of course I'm still crushed as we expected.