Self analysis on a steal hand, 2+2 advice much appreciated.

[Lurshy]

[ QUOTE ]
one more thing:
anyone who is willing to limp from 2nd position and call a raise w/ a weak ace isn't good enough to lay it down on the flop. Either it's a bad read, or a bad bluff...either way, it doesn't fit with what you are trying to accomplish.

-SossMan



[/ QUOTE ]

That is an extremely insightful nugget of analysis.

Can't tell you how many times I am surprised by a call early in the hand, only to be surprised by a call later on. The read is correct, but the villian is not good enough to do the 'right thing'.

It also ties to what I sometimes say after I suck out with a bad call: "Save your bet next time, fundamentally I'm too stupid too fold". [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[dr_zorba]

I always get a huge kick out of the presumptions people make. About every other tournament I'll Limp early with a huge hand and bust someone OTB who thinks he can move me off my "weak" hand with a PF ALLin. HAHA - watch them go poof and disappear.
When the button or a blind doesn't cooperate with a bluff raise, you just bet your hand after the Flop instead of before.
Last night I Limped with AK UTG and busted the Button who was on a steal.
It doesn't ALWAYS work, but I'm WAY ahead.

[Brad F.]

Something that hasn't been suggested yet is that UTG+1 has a monster. UTG+1 is a very good place to limp with AA, AK, KK, QQ, and hope for that later raiser.

So if you've been watching and reading this guy, if he had been tight, I'd have him immediately with A-Q or higher at this point in time. If he's not so tight, than I guess a weak ace could be assumed, but anyone that's limping with weak ace from UTG+1 probably shouldn't be playing MTT's IMO.

So if he does have something like A-Q, he limps UTG+1, and then the classic steal position on the BB raises a weak amount. UTG+1 right then and there probably has you on a decent steal. He prepares to allow you to keep attempting the steal if the flop hits.

Flop comes A-J-X. He bets a small enough amount so that you will attempt a resteal, and then smoothcalls when you attempt it.

Fourth street comes a blank, he probably bet the small amount to get you to attempt a resteal again. At the minimum, he gets money from you or you fold.

He still figures he's ahead on fifth street, so he bets again. Fifth street was the one that kind of confused me, because up until this point I thought I had a decent read on UTG+1. But the river bet seems large for someone who figures he has the best hand.

Anyway, that was my read. This seemed to come in the mid to latter stages of the tournament since the stack sizes are larger, so the limp from UTG+1 would scare me right away. I'd just check PF, and then maybe attempt a steal on that flop if you figured he could have kings or queens.

Hope this helps. Just my read of the hand.

And Soss, your evaluation of the player if he did limp with a weak ace was right on IMO. If he limped with a weak ace, he was hoping to hit the ace and go all the way with it, regardless of the fact he might be dominated.

Brad

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
But the river bet seems large for someone who figures he has the best hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Large? He's giving 7:1 odds. Hell I wasn't even in the hand and I almost threw chips in there just to see what he had...

[Brad F.]

Nevermind on the river read. I for some reason thought he bet more than that.

Brad

[tiger7210]

Soss makes an excellent point about not calling the last 12,000 on the river. The only time you should fold here is if you can't even beat a bluff. In this case you would have then folded on the turn. If your opponent is a weak calling station he very well could be holding a pair of 22's since you really never showed any major strength. If for no other reason, its worth paying the 12000 chips to gain information on the player that could help you later on in the game. I've seen too many bad internet players call/ bet down bottom pair or Ace high for example like they had the nutz. Showing your hand here may not hurt either. If you do happen to pick up a big hand, you may be more likely to get action as you'll be perceived as loose which may make it more difficult for your opponents to get future reads on you.

[jacks321]

And that's somewhat related to another post of mine about how I bleed chips once I get ITM. This is my first orbit with this player. With no other reads to go on, I assume he's not a total calling station because he managed to make it into the top 30 one of the top 5 stacks. I think the error on the end is painfully obvious and it's one I don't tend to make in the early-mid stages of a tourney. I seem to freeze up ITM the way some people do on the bubble and make dumb mistakes because I'm thinking about the final table. Clashing with another big stack on this hand wasn't something I needed to be doing - especially if I'm not willing to put the proper amount of chips at risk (at this point I'm 3rd largest at this table and 4th overall). I guess it's something that comes with experience but any reading on later stage psychology would probably help me improve greatly.

[mosquito]

Frankly, I'm not at all fond of the decision
to go to war with a big stack.

Steal from a medium stack. I prefer to just fold this one.
Maybe I'm a stick in the mud.

Once you get called on your flop play, you're pretty
much done, unless you fell you have to call him down
because of pot odds, or whatever, but there is no reason
to initiate further action.

[mosquito]

why does he have to lay down? your betting
says you are not on a flush draw, with the exception
of a suited connector you would not have played that
way anyhow....