Two pair on a straightening board

shadow29 · #1 12-31-2004, 01:51 AM

Do I call the turn?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls, 5 folds, Hero (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG folds, Hero ?

mr pink · #2 12-31-2004, 02:10 AM

crap... i'd lean towards folding. i guess it depends on the opponent, effective odds of 7 to 2... you think you're ahead here more than that?

DeuceHigh80 · #3 12-31-2004, 02:14 AM

BB likes his hand enough after the turn to lead into you again in spite of your flop raise. If the turn improved his hand I think a straight is a likely assumption. I think you're behind now with only 4 outs to a boat and no other way to improve.

I would be folding this turn, unless I had a real good read that BB was capable of bluffing at scare cards?

Of course I'm interested to hear all the reasons that line would be too weak tight [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

mr pink · #4 12-31-2004, 02:17 AM

sounds like a pretty solid analysis of the hand. seems like he's realized how scary the board is and is now afraid it will get checked through, thus the turn stop and go. i'd fold.

peace - jeff

Shillx · #5 12-31-2004, 02:30 AM

I'm not folding here. There is probably some chance that the villian made 2 pair on this turn.

Brad

Aaron W. · #6 12-31-2004, 03:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're behind now with only 4 outs to a boat and no other way to improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've forgotten your 3 outs to chop, if he really has the straight.

I'd still call this one down without a read (and a read would have been really nice here - this is an easy raise-fold, check behind on the river against a passive player). An agressive player may continue to bet top pair for all sorts of reasons:

1) If Hero was on a straight draw, then he(ro) now has a pair of 8s and he (villain) may have that beat
2) He shouldn't be playing scared just because the scare card came
3) He might be able to push Hero off of his hand
4) He still has top pair
5) He just caught two pair, 8s and 9s
6) He picked up a card towards his backdoor flush draw
7) He has KQ for two overcards and a gutshot to the nut straight

Of course, I'm not saying that any of these is going to be right all the time or that it can't be a combination of these things, or that any of them will be right (maybe BB does have the 6 or J, or a set, or some other hand that beats hero), but with two pair and being heads up, I'd look him up this time. I don't think it's a disasterous mistake.