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#1
12-30-2004, 01:41 AM
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fp\'s bowl picks continued
2-0 start; hope to continue it w/ UNC tomorrow early game...
this is one of my biggest bets this bowl season slightly bigger bet than even my OR St pick; UNC is a solid team that has improved significantly in the 2nd half of the season esp on defense, just take a quick glance at their results BC reeling off missed chance at BCS party + head coach interest in other positions + almost home game for UNC = solid win for UNC for me [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] gl (should have couple more picks for tomorrow's games in a little bit) 
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#2
12-30-2004, 02:03 PM
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Re: fp\'s bowl picks continued
to reiterate, the big bet for the day is UNC (-2) for me.
a small bet on New Mexico (ml) though the navy record is impressive, navy has not beaten a bowl team; there's no doubt that NM's mckamey is not a great passer and inexperienced but fortunately NM doesn't like to pass much anyway i see this game probably close going into half and in the 2nd half, NM's size wearing down the navy D; NM is one of the best 7-4 mid majors in the country my rank of bets so far in terms of EV 1) UNC -2 2) Or St -3 3) CO -3 4) N Mex(ml) NM gets the small bet b/c the off set and plays navy runs will result in big plays making the game closer; i also don't like that navy has no pressure to defend the pass i see that some are taking NIU in the late game; personally, this is definitely a pass game for me and if i were forced to bet, i would rather take Troy St than NIU; but this game looks way too close to me to find any EV on it; Troy St is one of the best mid major road teams outside Utah and Louis (though is it really a road game when there are going to be 60 people in the stands [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]) yes, im aware their road record is not so good but if you saw those games, you wouldve seen a highly competiitive and highly impressive Troy team best of luck to everyone
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