When Confronted with An Explanation that is Based on Mathematics

[LokiV]

Poor, poor, poor example talking about basketball or sports in general guys. Your argument is great for a NUMBERS game but the mindset of a player as well as outside conditions influence them on a game by game (and second by second) basis so that their '% of making the next shot' is not always static, but unable to be analyzed so closely due to small sample size of that game (say a player takes 30 shots) versus the larger season/career.

You are overlooking the fact that confidence can win sports competitions. It cannot turn a poker hand into a winner or let you roll well in craps.

Revise the argument so that you are not open to such an easy (intuitive! ha) criticism.