OESD Against Crazy Action

cbfair · #1 12-24-2004, 01:44 AM

UTG+2 is 27/7 VP$IP/PFR, MP1 is 54/0, CO is 28/3 , BB is 50/6.

Aside from a questionable PF call (even after the re-raise) is there anything you would do differently after the flop?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, 2 folds, BB raises, UTG+2 3-bets, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, BB caps, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (20.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, CO raises, BB 3-bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Turn: (16.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, CO raises, BB 3-bets, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls, CO calls.

River: (26.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 29.25 BB

Shillx · #2 12-24-2004, 01:51 AM

Wow interesting hand.

Fold to the limp reraise PF.

Fold on the flop when it is 2 more back to you. Even if you hit a Jack, you lose to any king. If a diamond comes, it will surely make your hand weaker by giving someone a redraw (if not a flush). If a six comes, there are lots of ways you can lose still...

Brad

Greg J · #3 12-24-2004, 02:02 AM

I don't mind the preflop limp initially, though I prefer to make it later. Still, when it's two more bets back to you, I think you should fold. I think your only clean outs are the 6s, but the pot is so big you have passed the "event horizon" of pot odds.

The event horizon is the point of no return on a black hole, where you have effectively been sucked in and cannot leave.

What do you do here? I HATE cold calling bets. Who else thinks he needs to throw some raises in there?

EDIT: I need to develop my "event horizon" theory more. I'm thinking about making GOOD posts over the holiday break, one regarding this subject, another discussing mid pocket pairs.

Some initial thoughts on the event horizon idea: I think it's important to aviod event horizon situations with marginal hands, hence the preflop fold. The biggest mistake is getting there. Staying out of situations where you rarely win but mathematically can't justify folding will save you money. Sometimes you can't help it, I realize, but try to minimize getting into them with hands like 87s.

Remember this next time you have to cold call with a marginal hand like this, and just let it go.

cbfair · #4 12-24-2004, 02:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think your only clean outs are the 6s, but the pot is so big you have passed the "event horizon" of pot odds.

...What do you do here? I HATE cold calling bets. Who else thinks he needs to throw some raises in there?

[/ QUOTE ]

I felt dirty throughout this whole ordeal; but even when cold-calling the three bet on the flop, I was getting 15 to 1 on my 3 outer to the non-diamond 6's. Throw in the "tainted outs" and I was well beyond the event horizon from the flop on.

It's rare to come across an example this clear-cut, but I'm concerned I call to the river too often based on questionable outs/pot odds and I'm dying to find a way out of this hand.

Please say more about why you think a raise or two would help.

Greg J · #5 12-24-2004, 02:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Please say more about why you think a raise or two would help.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, your relative position sucks, but if you cant get even one person to fold, then that improves your chances of winning this pot. It might make someone incorrectly fold -- a coup for you -- and might (though not likely) clean up yr J outs. OR It might make make an player who would othewise raise just call. If YOU start throwing in raises too, it might take people aback, make the guy with AA suspect a set or a flopped 2 pair. This could actually save you a bet. It's not just chip spewing... when the pot gets THIS big you have to do some pretty crazy things sometimes. A lot like the laws of physics change in the super high gravity of a black hole [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

[ QUOTE ]
I'm dying to find a way out of this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hence my whole point. Dump it preflop after it's 2 bet's back to you! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]