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#13
12-23-2004, 12:39 PM
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Re: Mirage 6/12 Flopped Flush
[ QUOTE ]
I just can't find any reasoning for someone holding the nuts on the turn to call a check raise. [/ QUOTE ] Because it's the Mirage, and his opponent is a local. To them, a 3-bet on the turn MEANS the nuts. So they don't want to "give away" their hand by 3-betting because their opponent will "obviously" fold. So they slowplay by calling the turn and then raising the river. It's a very very common betting pattern out here. 
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#14
12-23-2004, 12:42 PM
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Re: Mirage 6/12 Flopped Flush
[ QUOTE ]
I just can't find any reasoning for someone holding the nuts on the turn to call a check raise. [/ QUOTE ] You play LL poker and you require your opponents to have reasons? How do you survive [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]? Here is a reason. He doesn't want to let his opponent escape by folding the turn 3-bet. That would cost him two bets. Sorry if you think that is a dumb reason but it seems to be a staple in the spider school of poker. It's all about trapping your opponents through devious slowplays. Mathematically you are asking the wrong question. You keep focusing on how unlikely the nut flush is to play this way. Well the fact is he did call the turn and raise the river. He has to have something and I can't think what else it would be. Unless you can find other hands that are more likely to play this way, he is still a favorite to have the nuts. Obviously pure bluffs that won't call a reraise don't count.
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#16
12-23-2004, 12:44 PM
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Re: Mirage 6/12 Flopped Flush
[ QUOTE ]
You play LL poker and you require your opponents to have reasons? [/ QUOTE ] Point taken. I guess I would've lost too many bets on this hand.
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