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#11
12-22-2004, 01:21 PM
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Re: fold or all-in?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] $50 SNG on UB...down to four...blinds at 75/150...I'm comfortably in 2nd in the BB with AKs...the leader (he's got about 50% more chips than me, and playing a solid game), is UTG and leads out with a pot-sized bet...if I fold, I'm 90% sure I'd at least make the money... my read is he only makes that bet with one hand that's worse than mine - AQ. Okay, MAYBE AJs. If not one of those hands (or AK) I'm pretty sure he's got a decent PP....99, TT or JJ...anything bigger he'd probably limp and hope to trap. push or fold? [/ QUOTE ] Um...how about option #3 - Call, see a flop, and go from there. AK doesn't always have to be a push/fold hand, especially in the above-described situation. If you flop an Ace or King, go to war, and somehow end up with the worst hand, oh well. That's a lot less risky a scenario then coming over the top given the proposed range of hands for UTG (and what sounds like not many chips in the pot to take down uncontested). Also, not sure what the chip stacks are (might help the analysis). And a "pot-sized bet" at 75/150? Are there antes on UB or something, cause otherwise that's less than a mini-raise. And, is this a top-3 payout structure? [/ QUOTE ] Thank you Gramps...I thought I was the only one confused by this...what's a "pot size bet" mean PF UTG?? If it means there is 225 in the pot (blinds) then you can't raise this little. If it means a mini raise of 2BB then id cold call and see how the flop hits me...although this could lead to disaster if he's playing a monster and god forbid the flop hits you (this is unlikely being that if he is playing AA/KK the flop is more unlikely to hit you). I like to play my semi big/big hands against the big stacks this way...why risk a coin toss, but also for so little a raise why not see a flop? calling a minraise here (in BB) IMO is not being weak... 
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#13
12-22-2004, 02:23 PM
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Re: fold or all-in?
OK, ignoring for now the meaning of "pot-sized" bet, I'm going to assume that means a small raise.
My question is this... how can you POSSIBLY put him on this small a range of hands? AJs, or better Ace, or PP you say? This is 4 handed. Many folks would raise with suited connectors, and even one gap suited connectors like T8s here, if they were chip leader 4 handed. A fold here is waaaaaaaaay to weak. A call is OK, but i prefer a raise.
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#14
12-22-2004, 02:28 PM
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Re: fold or all-in?
If I remember correctly, a standard pot-sized raise from UTG pf would be 3.5 BB. There is 1.5 BB to start, you call (1 BB), then raise an amount equal to the pot AFTER your call (2.5 BB). Call (1BB) plus raise (2.5 BB) = 3.5 BB
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#15
12-22-2004, 03:27 PM
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Re: fold or all-in? MY BAD
sorry, guys, I mis-typed....
obviously, in how I presented the hand, calling is cerainly an option. But in reality, the blinds were high in relation to the stacks. I was in 2nd, but the leader's raise was half my stack. The other two players were short stacked compared to me. That's why I'm assuming my only options are fold or push. Sorry for the confusion!
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#16
12-22-2004, 03:31 PM
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Re: fold or all-in?
[ QUOTE ]
OK, ignoring for now the meaning of "pot-sized" bet, I'm going to assume that means a small raise. My question is this... how can you POSSIBLY put him on this small a range of hands? AJs, or better Ace, or PP you say? This is 4 handed. Many folks would raise with suited connectors, and even one gap suited connectors like T8s here, if they were chip leader 4 handed. A fold here is waaaaaaaaay to weak. A call is OK, but i prefer a raise. [/ QUOTE ] I put him on a strong hand because the raise was roughly 1/4 his stack and how he was playing throughout the SNG. Very solid, not tricky. Again, I mis-typed - the raise was more than pot-sized and was half of my stack. To me, when a player over bets the pot, he's either bluffing or he's got a mid PP and wants to bet the A-blanks off the hnd. Based on my read on the player, I ruled a bluff out.
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#17
12-22-2004, 03:34 PM
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Re: fold or all-in? MY BAD
[ QUOTE ]
sorry, guys, I mis-typed.... obviously, in how I presented the hand, calling is cerainly an option. But in reality, the blinds were high in relation to the stacks. I was in 2nd, but the leader's raise was half my stack. The other two players were short stacked compared to me. That's why I'm assuming my only options are fold or push. Sorry for the confusion! [/ QUOTE ] so my post from before (call and see flop) is nulled by this change in scheme...Its a tough call, your push has no fold equity left so you'd have to hope for a dominated Ace situation... pooh
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#18
12-22-2004, 05:52 PM
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Re: fold or all-in?
Assuming your opponent will make that raise with only the initial range of hands you specified is NOT solid poker. If he is a good (which is what solid means to me) SNG player his range of hands will be *much* larger. Now if he's a solid weak/tight player -- then perhaps you're not far off.
If your read is accurate and given the new information about relative stack sizes, then you definitely don't push as your $EV will be higher by folding (your CEV will probably be higher by pushing given the high blinds). Try running the stack sizes through ICM to see what your $EV is folding here and then pick a range of hands for your opponent (almost surely looser than your initial assumption) to see what your $EV is when pushing and being called (seems like pushing and your opponent folding really isn't possible. Just my 2 cents. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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