Issues with the 30+3's, help please (long)

[bismillahno]

Hi all,

my gradual progression up the SnG buy ins had been going fairly well. A nice profit along the way had fully paid back all the time and effort I put into learning. However, since I've been trying to move up to the 30's I'm killed, and any help would be appreciated. Here are my figures from the sites and levels I've played at, pretty much in the order I've played them.

The pokerroom tournaments were largely 2 tabling, the empire's 4 tabling.

Pokerroom 10+1's

152 played
ROI 38.8%
ITM 44.7%

profit $678

Pokerroom 20+2's

137 played
ROI 21.4%
ITM 41.6%
profit $646

That profit was used to get myself a pc (I had been playing on a mac laptop), and with a new monitor capable of 4 tabling, I hit empire with a vengance.

Empire 10+1's

190 played
ROI 31.1%
ITM 43.2%
profit $650

Empire 20+2's

112 played
ROI 25.0%
ITM 37.5%
profit $616

With a bankroll healthily over $1000, it seemed time to move up to the 30's

Empire 30+3's

79 played
ROI -27.5%
ITM 22.8%
profit -$717 [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

To help with analysis, here are my 1st - 10th breakdowns.

1st 7
2nd 6
3rd 5
4th 13
5th 10
6th 16
7th 9
8th 5
9th 5
10th 3


Obviously the sample size at the 30's isn't huge, but its not tiny either, and I'm trying to figure out whats going on. Here are my possible reasons.

a) Its all bad luck, I've just hit a really cold patch of cards, and I'll win it all back if I keep plugging away.

Stupidsuckers recent run has been worse than this, and I know he's a better player than me, which is heartening. It definitely feels like my luck hasn't been good recently. Can anyone tell me how statistically significant these numbers are?

b) The improvement in opposition has killed me, and I can't compete at this higher level.

I have noticed the difference in standard, but it doesn't feel like its that huge. Probably enough to knock a few points off my ROI and ITM, but not that much.

c) Bad luck/better players have tilted me, and have left me playing worse. I'm getting too loose, calling too much, stealing too much/too little.

I have noticed myself doing this kind of thing a little more often, which has meant I've taken a week long break from playing. It helped clear my head, and I'm certainly not feeling angry about the situation, but I can't discount this.

Any thoughts on this would be greatly appreciated. Is a, b or c the most likely culprit? For now I'm back to the 20's, not sure how long I'll stay there.

[captZEEbo1]

My guess is you are having problems with bubble play. I'd hop down to the 20s for awhile, until you build up your bankroll and confidence again. Then OCASSIONALLY try the 30s.

[bigredlemon]

Don't try to play too many tables at once. I'd focus on just one and watch carefully. Try to get a feel for it. Go multi-table once you get more comfortable.

[AleoMagus]

You have played a fairly large amount of tourneys now. Not large enough to say with a huge degree of confidence that you are a 30%+ROI player, but certainly enough to know that you are a winner.

I'd also say that it is fairly obvious that multi-tabling is not your problem either, as you have put in over 300 tourneys that way in 10+1 and 20+2 and you have gotten good results.

30+3 is not that much different from 10+1 and 20+2

Therefore, I suspect that the problem is psychological. Up to this point, you have not really had the misfortune of a really bad spell and your ROI has been fairly stable from what I see. About 79 tourneys ago, you fell into what was probably just normal fluctuations and it happened to coincide with your step up to the 30+3. Well, you had never seen a streak like this bad one before so you started to doubt your ability to play at this level, you got frustrated, and you have started to compound the problem with some bad play that you might not even fully realize right now. You are upset because your last 200 tourneys have all been for nothing and this downward spiral seem like it isn't going to end.

My advice. Stop playing for a while and when you do come back, step down to 20+2 again. Maybe step down all the way to 10+1. Read a book or two in the interim but actually, don't think too much about poker at all. I suggest a break of at least a week. I know it seems like you will be sacrificing profits this way, but as long as you are subconciously hurting what is clearly a winning game, you may just continue to lose. The key now is regaining confidence and being able to take a fresh, detached look at the game.

Then again, this could all be normal fluctuation, but with your previous ROI, I doubt that it is only fluctuations.

Regards
Brad S

edit - I see that you have already taken a week off. That is good and possibly I am not telling you anything you do not already know. So start playing again and from now on win more money than you lose. Easy

[Losing all]

I'll second aleo. Those numbers are fugly, while your previous numbers are pretty damn solid. your 8-10ths look a little high, but not high enough for me to think you're tilting like mad.

More likely that you've turned a bad run into a very bad run by playing WAY too tight on the bubble (this is easy to do and pretty common for us mere mortals when running poorly).

[Scorpion Man]

Very hard to know given the lack of other info here, but the distribution of outcomes suggests to me that you are playing pretty tight early, and therefore often making it to the final 5-7 players relatively short stacked. I also wonder if you are having trouble at the higher blinds. Are you ending up consistently shorter stacked at ever increasing blinds, forcing frequent coin flips?

i find at the lower buyins that often there are people just chucking chips all in with a small pair. if you are patient in these games you can really take advantage of this. i find at higher buyins that you have to be more "fancy" and creative, using a broader bag of tricks.

Just a thought.

[bismillahno]

Thanks for the responses. I'll get back to grinding the 20's, and pay attention to my bubble play. I do think there was some significant tilt creeping in, unfortunately coinciding with a rise in levels.

These things are taking more mental toughness than I realised, even with reading a tonne of posts about it...

[syka16]

I noticed a huge drop in ROI playing 30s and decided to stay at 20s. I was going broke a lot with AQ and AJ and wasn't used to 7 players left level 5. I found myself not doubling up nearly as much level I-III and blinding out due to timid play late

[Scuba Chuck]

Bismill, you should listen to Aleo long before you consider my comments. And my comments are in due respect to Aleo's opinions. But I would like to offer my analysis of your situation, as it would most likely be what I would do if I were in your shoes.

The key maybe is in what you're not revealing, you're revealing only the tip of the iceberg - so to speak. For me, I'd think his ROI is kinda low at the $20+2's, and if you think it's all right, realize that our difference could be summed up by variance. (ROI - per his stats = 22.9%)

I would be willing to wager that that the bell curve viewed in his $30+3 play (mostly at the 4,5,& 6 area) is most likely 'tipping' us to believe that there isn't a clear understanding of bubble play. I say this from experience.

IMHO with the info you provided, I would stay down in the $20+2s (as you are still profitable here) and work on my bubble play, as I would guess that's where the improvement is needed to be more confident at the $30+3 level, and increase your ROI (and ITM) at this level. What minimum ROI would give me confidence that I should move up a level? probably 30%+.

This leads me to a good question, and one that I have been thinking about. What is a good ROI (per level) that one should shoot for before considering to move up a buyin level? And furthermore, what is the minimum ROI for someone to accept as an obvious sign to not move up per buyin level?

I ask this because it is usually 'suggested' that you move up a level based on bankroll. I moved into the $30+3 bankroll level in just 33 SNGs after reaching my $20+2 bankroll level. My ROI thus far has been very high. Although the results thus far give me confidence, I am considering to see another 100-170 SNGs before I move up a level. (I lie, I will probably toss in a $33 game here and there)

[Scuba Chuck]

Bismillahno, I have posted my questions in a new thread:

Level Increases: Bankroll vs ROI