Small Stakes Hold'em question for Ed Miller

[miamikid]

You write in your book on p40

[ QUOTE ]
When most people play poker,they tend to expect that which has ocurred to reoccur. For example, if they have drawn to five flushes so far in that session and made them all, they tend to expect to complete their flush again if they flop another draw. Likewise, when people miss five flushes in a row, they tend to expect to miss a sixth one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm curious what you base your statement on. Do you base it on inward reflection, on what people say at the table, asking players, or something else?

Thanks,
miamikid

[EliteNinja]

I think it just means that people always base future results on past results. So if you go on a hot streak, you expect that it's normal to keep winning.

Just how the brain recognizes patterns. But in poker, things are more random. The brain tries to see patterns and conclude things about the future.

[slavic]

Sit in a live game and you'll see this.

"My AK allways misses so I don't raise with it."
"My flush never hits"
"I'm running good tonight boys"

The average gambling public believes in streaks and patterns.

[cwsiggy]

I would believe people would (incorrectly) think the opposite.
If there have bee a lot of flushes , then the board is "overdue" for none - Kind of like roulette. That's the way I see those patterns even thought they are independant random events.

[BradleyT]

If you play B&M you'll see it's the opposite of what you think and exactly what slavic posted.

[rusellmj]

Interesting reading over here:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...14&fpart=1
Russ

[MicroBob]

The linked article is REALLY good. Thanks for posting that.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
The average gambling public believes in streaks and patterns.

[/ QUOTE ]

Average meaning the vast majority.

They give all sorts of reasons why they play bad. And yet they say it with such conviction!

b