Betraisebetraisebetraise

[Alexthegreat]

Live 10/20....Looks like a typical LAG game, my third hand at the table...I've played with villian before, nothing spectacular about him

I get 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the button

one limper, Villian raises from middle position, CO calls, I call....blinds fold, limper calls...4 to the flop

6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villian bets, CO calls, I raise....Limper folds, both call

Turn is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villian bets, CO calls, I raise....both call

River is 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villian bets, CO calls, I raise....both call

Comments?

[SpaceAce]

I see players do this all the time. It usually means one of several things but one thing it almost never means is a big hand.

SpaceAce

[sthief09]

standard

[Alexthegreat]

Any thoughts on what villian/CO could hold??

[haakee]

The preflop cold-call is standard? While I think a lot of people on this board would make that call I think it's a debatable call. In fact, I'd probably fold without more information on the players.

Flame away.

[Alexthegreat]

[ QUOTE ]
In fact, I'd probably fold without more information on the players.


[/ QUOTE ]

What kind of information would make you fold here?? If I knew he was the type of player who would only raise here with broadway pairs, then yeah, I MIGHT fold, but that is unlikely....The fact that I need to flop a set to stick around here makes this an easy call for me...(being one of my first hands at the table, I didn't know much about the blinds, but in this game the blinds usually don't fold, ever)

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In fact, I'd probably fold without more information on the players.


[/ QUOTE ]

What kind of information would make you fold here?? If I knew he was the type of player who would only raise here with broadway pairs, then yeah, I MIGHT fold, but that is unlikely....The fact that I need to flop a set to stick around here makes this an easy call for me...(being one of my first hands at the table, I didn't know much about the blinds, but in this game the blinds usually don't fold, ever)

[/ QUOTE ]
You're getting immediate odds of 3:1, with likely odds of 3.5:1 (assuming the limper calls and the BB folds) or maybe even 4:1 if they both call. Let's make the safe assumption that only the limper calls, so you're getting 3.5:1. This means that when you flop your set or better, you need to make an extra 4 BB by the river. So let's walk through a likely scenario. You flop your set, the limper checks, raiser bets, caller calls, you raise, limper folds, the other two call. That's two BB right there. It's checked to you on the turn, you bet, raiser calls, caller folds. Checked to you on the river, and the raiser either calls your bet and folds. (Or perhaps both the raiser and the caller call your turn bet and both fold on the river.)

So the analysis so far indicates that you're just barely getting the right implied odds for your preflop call. And I haven't even factored the probability of you losing to a bigger set (granted, very rare), a straight, or a flush.

My guess is that this is either a zero EV or just barely +EV play with high variance. That is, the cold call sucks.

[Doubling12]

Seems like villian put you on a draw+pair or something and pulled a stop and go? Maybe he has AA or KK. Perhaps CO had the draw + pair, T9 or something, and made a bad call on the river.

[Alexthegreat]

So with another limper I'd be fine??

Do you fold 99 here as well??

What if I was one of the blinds??

[TStoneMBD]

1 more limper and this is a somewhat easier call. id definitely play 99, maybe for a 3bet. if there was only 2 players and a raise, i wouldnt be getting enough odds to call. if i was bb id certainly call.

i would have mucked this here as you barely have enough odds to flop a set and you could easily get reraised, not to mention both blinds may even fold making it a 3 way pot.