Good time to fold AA?

[burningyen]

A hand from an hour ago...

UB $10+1 $5K Guaranteed MTT

Hero has 4885.
BB has 1500.
UTG has 970.
UTG+1 has 1555.
MP1 has 2530.
MP2 has 2860.
MP3 has 5235.
CO has 1960.
Button has 2125.

Hero posts small blind of 20. BB posts big blind of 40.

Pre-flop: Hero is dealt: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

UTG folds, UTG+1 calls 40, MP1 folds, MP2 calls 40, MP3 calls 40, CO folds, Button folds, Hero raises to 240, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls 200, MP3 calls 200.

Pot = 800.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Hero bets 800, MP2 goes all-in for 2620, MP3 folds

Pot = 4220.

1820 more to call.

Hero ???

[riverboatking]

no.
call.

[DemonDeac Holding Rockets]

def call
hes either got the flush draw or some overpair like pocket 10s, both of which you are a favorite to win.

[burningyen]

Tourney's still going and I'm in 5th with 83 players remaining!

[burningyen]

Medium pockets are also strong possibilities, I think.

[sloth469]

Is a set totally out of the question here? Do we ever give a bet such as this the repect it asks for or do we need a strong read before that could ever be right?

-sloth

[kidpoker22]

Ummmmm, not a good fold. What had do you think the all-in guy holds that beats you? 66, 44 not likely. I would say a medium overpair like 88-TT or a strong flush draw, i.e. AQc or KQc. Not to mention you're getting almost 3:1 to call here. This is a simple call and a bad fold. You called, right?

KP22

[partygirluk]

EAsy call.

[pindawg]

His all in bet screams larger overpair, perhaps drawing to nut flush. Very unlikely for him to play a set like this. I'd have to say AcKc , Ac Qc , JJ or 1010 as all likely hands for villian which would make calling the correct decision.

[Percula]

My knee jerk reation from reading the history was Ax with the x hitting the flop or ace with paint. I would put this as a possible for a middle pair, but would lean towards the Ax maybe with a flush draw Ax.

Set is definately a possible, but I think more likely based on the betting pattern it is a weak hand that hit thinking the others are playing ace high poker on a raised pot. I would say less than 25% of the time have I called this or seen this type of hand called was there a set with that all in bet on the flop. If it was a flat call and then a all-in on the turn or river then I would be thinking more of a set, but still would be putting the all-in on weak ace that hit the flop or if this push was on the turn or river a ace with paint that is being over played.

Now if this was a $100 buy-in, things change. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]