First 19k hands at Party 3/6, find the leaks!

[JimRivett]

nothing I say will convince you

I'm open to any input that is given, but as of yet I haven't seen anything that convinces me it's a specific VPIP% that is optimal. Come on admit it, didn't you overreact to my initial post?

As I said before, I'm sure the originator of this thread, Bill, will post some hands and listen to the feed back, it will then be up to him how he applies it. Don't you think he deserves contrary views from successful players?

Jim

[sthief09]

you said that he's not too tight. he is. that's why I was bothered by your first post

[krishanleong]

Assume a player plays absulotely perfectly. Then his optimal VP$IP will be all hands that are +EV. If you think this is 11%, you are arguing against a lot of hands that many people including Ed and many SS posters believe are +EV. Now the reason most people shy away from VP$IP above 19 is because the more hands you add, the more difficult situations you put yourself in, and the better player you have to be to turn a profit. (In those marginal situations) Astroglide posted a winrate of +3 over a semisignificant number of hands (60K, 100K?) with a VP$IP of 22% at 3/6. Interpret the data how you will.

Krishan

[JimRivett]

You may want to reread my initial post.

Jim

[sthief09]

you've made the following comments in this thread:

the most important stat - bb/100, says that you are a winning player, that says a lot right there.

Others have commented on your VPIP stat and while mine is higher (14%) I wouldn't be too concerned about it.

Bill asked for input on his game, he is already a winning player, my advice was not to worry about too much about his VPIP %, post some hands and digest the input he receives.




I'm done with this. it's a waste of time

[CostaRicaBill]

Thanks for the input so far guys, I thought my preflop play was solid but now I realize that I've got some adjustments to make...I want to crush! Here are my stats from the blinds...

Blind Defense
Small Blind...Times 20, Fold% 25 Ww/oSD% 20 WSD% 55 W$SD% 45.45
Big Blind.....Times 40, Fold% 42.50 Ww/oSD% 10 WSD% 47.50 W$SD% 57.89

Att. to Steal Blinds 16.92

[J.R.]

Att. to Steal Blinds 16.92

boo

[sfwusc]

Come play with me if you fold to aggr [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

You need to get reads on players.

SFWUSC

[MaxPower]

Well it is possible that you are not defending your Big Blind enough from steals, but what I really wanted to see was your VP$IP from the SB and the BB. You can see that on the position stats tab.

[uw_madtown]

[ QUOTE ]
nothing I say will convince you

I'm open to any input that is given, but as of yet I haven't seen anything that convinces me it's a specific VPIP% that is optimal. Come on admit it, didn't you overreact to my initial post?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he didn't.

11-14% in the Party 3/6 is suboptimal, without a doubt. Now, there are various reasons and ways you can go about justifying a lower VPIP. Often the difference in EV may be relatively small, while the the difference in standard deviation can bu substantial (you may make an extra .25 or .5 BB/100, but end up with a swingier game that some players prefer to avoid). Playing some of these small +EV hands also requires skill and judgement, and can end up in disasterous chip-spewing by an unconfident or inexperienced player.

All that said, the 16-19% VPIP range is where the optimal VPIP for slightly loose-passive games like the Party 3/6 lies. Now, if you were playing in signficantly looser or tighter or more aggressive games than that, you may see that optimal range slide up or down a percentage point or two, but probably not much more.

Further, VPIP is the main stat that sticks out as a potential flaw. He's playing aggressively preflop with a 7+% PFR. His post-flop aggression factor (2 overall) is solid. His win % at showdown is actually a bit high, and makes me think he may not be calling people down enough -- but this is a fall that can be dangerous to correct as people sometimes overcorrect and end up calling down way too much.

His later comments especially indicate that he's not limping enough with certain hands, like Axs and small pocket pairs, as well as some other suited hands from MP and LP. All in all, from statistics alone, the only flaw that is real visible is his lower-than-standard VPIP combined with a standard PFR. It would appear he may be falling victim to the "fit or fold," "if it's worth a call, then it's worth a raise" mentality, and sometimes that's just not the case. Limping with small pocket pairs and Axs from EP in the Party 3/6 is going to be profitable unless you're at a tight table (if so, move). The best way to learn how to play these hands profitably is to play them, and then try to learn from mistakes.

I believe the quote "you can never play too tight preflop" was probably in reference to beginners -- for whom a 20% VPIP would feel absurdly tight. OF COURSE YOU CAN PLAY TOO TIGHT. 11-14 VPIP is too tight. While he only has 19k hands, VPIP converges faster than other stats tend to, so it's less likely that he's just gotten a bad run of unplayable cards.

And telling him that a 14 VPIP is fine does him a disservice. Can a 14 VPIP be profitable, and even preferrable for certain aforementioned reasons? Of course. Can a 14 VPIP be optimal in most games? No.