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#11
12-15-2004, 01:36 AM
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Re: The Butcher
Thanks for the advice guys, it's much appreciated
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#12
12-15-2004, 01:36 AM
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Re: The Butcher
when all those monkeys call the flop for one bet you should checkraise the flop. you just love that most of the time most of them are sitting there w/ 2-5 outs max and theyre committed to seeing the next street since theyve already put one bet in.
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#13
12-15-2004, 06:23 AM
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Re: The Butcher
I have questions/comments on the suggested flop play. In particular the advice to bet the flop, hoping to get raised and clear the field. I think going for the CR on this flop is a better play than betting.
Some reasons why: First you need MP1 to raise you, which is not guaranteed. Then you need the 4 outers to fold for 2 cold. I think the second part is highly unlikely. These players have shown the ability to call 3 cold already. The chances of them folding their gutshots for 2 more in a mega pot are very slim. As to the first part, if you only get called they all get to draw for only 1 SB. I would put the chances of getting a checkraise in somewhere at close to a 100%. The hands that might fold for 2 cold are the ones you want to call. Like the two guys with 22 and A7, for example. I would guess getting the chance to 3 bet would be about same by either checking or betting. My point is there isn't going to be any "clearing" on the flop. Why not get at least a sure 2 SBs from everyone? Comments on my probable illogical insights are welcome.
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#14
12-15-2004, 07:07 AM
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Re: The Butcher
[ QUOTE ]
Checked to MP1 who bets, all called and I decide that I'm going to checkraise a safe turn.... [/ QUOTE ] I think I would c/r here because either I will build a big pot, or I could get a MP to incorrectly lay down middle pair. I like either one. This keeps you out of trouble with a blown turn checkraise.
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#16
12-15-2004, 09:40 AM
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Re: The Butcher
I did not checkraise the flop because I wanted the ability to trap everyone for big bets on the turn....I'm not too worried about players calling for their gutters...I think there isn't much I can do to make this particular lot fold those types of hands.....I also don't particularly want to lose those players either, so I wouldn't be thrilled if I led and and was raised by the PFR....He could very well be ahead of me, and I want all the other players coming along if that is the case....
If the turn was bet and raised, I would be calling down... That was my thought process on this hand.......After going over the responses, I would checkraise the flop and lead the turn next time......
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#18
12-15-2004, 09:54 AM
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Re: The Butcher
Yeah great idea. And now you've made a pot so big that the two pair draws are correct to call your big bet on the turn.
I've gotta disagree with you Mike. Better to bet right out on the flop. Betting right into the pre-flop raiser suggests that you hit the flop hard. And you want to chase out the chasers. There's enuff money in the pot that you want to maximize your chance of taking it down.
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#19
12-15-2004, 03:28 PM
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Re: The Butcher
weve went over this before. if you run the numbers a flop checkraise here is better given your position. you will lose the pot a little more but it's more than made up for by those times people with very few outs are putting in multiple bets. when someone with something like JJ or 88 or QQ here is forced to put in 2-3 bets on the flop, your AK is just hogging EV like crazy. if they come along for one bet though youre really hating it. if a name poster wants to come along and show hard math as to why im wrong ill be happy to stand corrected, but, again, im pretty sure weve went over this exact problem several times on here and the numbers supported my view.
btw im a big proponent of the do everything you can to win the large pots way of thinking. but normally that means waiting until the turn, and given the position relative to the preflop capper it seems like it may be impossible to thin the field. a flop bet will sometimes have the effect of slowing absolutely everyone down on that board and you dont want people calling one bet at a time to the river as much as you want them trapped for multiple bets drawing very thin, despite the large pot. in other words, the only way for your opponents to be punished here is for them to have to peel for 2-3 bets on the flop. if you bet out the whole way and let them come for one bet, one bet, one bet you will be giving them the right price to continue with virtually anything.
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#20
12-15-2004, 06:11 PM
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Re: The Butcher
[ QUOTE ]
given the position relative to the preflop capper it seems like it may be impossible to thin the field. a flop bet will sometimes have the effect of slowing absolutely everyone down on that board and you dont want people calling one bet at a time to the river as much as you want them trapped for multiple bets drawing very thin, despite the large pot. [/ QUOTE ] That is exactly why I went for the turn checkraise.....I still think it's not a bad idea, but obviously it's more of a sure thing on the flop....
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