ok...QQ vs AK - is there a better way then 55%/45%?

[whiskeytown]

1300 player tourney...we're well into the money...66 out of 1300 left...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (8 handed) converter

saw flop

SB (t76107)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t21018)</font>
UTG (t34634)
UTG+1 (t38678)
MP1 (t37894)
MP2 (t29529)
CO (t57504)
Button (t18842)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 raises to t12000, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds,

-

so it's me and a bigger stack heads up...bear in mind we're both below average stacks at this point...

I have two choices with QQ - one is to go all in.

The other is to call and see the flop and if there is no A (which I suspect out of him at the least) -

but I'll tell you....he has AK - do I call and see the flop and presuming there is no A or K, push all in, or do I push all in right away and see if he will call another 8K and see all 5 cards...

I'm thinking, given Sklansky's idea that AK wants to be allin, that I should call the flop and push all in on the flop and pray he doesn't want to call 8K with no pair (presuming he doesn't get one on the flop)

but I also say push all in and take the 55/45 chase as a fav...

what do we do...

RB

[Nick B.]

Just push and have the QQ hold up.

[zaxx19]

Push, what situation are you really waiting for here, a 70-30 to double up when you have half the chips you have now?? Usually to do well in a large MTT you are gonna have to win 2-5 of these flips so take this one with the best of it whole doubling up can make you a player at your table. One side note: If you cant push with QQ well into a tourney then its gonna be hard sledding in MTT tournies. I, myself play pretty tight but this seems way way to ridiculously tight to me.

[whiskeytown]

no, yer missing the point...

let's say I know he has AK -

do I have a higher EV doing the 55/45 flip,

or a higher value calling the raise and then pushing all in after the flop when he knows 3 of the 5 cards he's expecting can't save him...

cause a LOT of players, calling a raise with AK might toss seeing as how they missed the flop.

RB

[Apathy]

If you know for a fact that he has AK then the +ev play is to call and push any flop without ace or king and check fold any other flop. Kinda lazy to do the math right now but looking at stack sizes this makes the most intuitive sense since you are putting half of your stack in pf with the call and do not stand much to gain by gambling the rest as a 55% fav. All of this assumes that

1. He will not fold pf
2. he will play the flop perfectly i.e push if A or K falls and fold if you push.

[JaBlue]

You can't call off half your chips. That's probably the biggest tournament no-no I can think of. You have to push here.

Also, when you push, what makes you think he's going to fold AK getting 3:1 from the pot?

Its just horrible to fold queens here.

[Apathy]

This isnt a normal tournamnet situation, you CAN call of half your chips because you know for a fact what the opponent holds. Pushing is foolish even if you are not the only one who plays the flop perfectly.

Whiskeytown is saying that you are 100% certain of your opponents cards and since your opponent is drawing and you are not it is much better to limit theamount of cards seen since this maximizes EV. Obviously if you didnt know you opponents cards a push is correct since you will be pot commited on the flop otherwise.

There is NO such thing as "Pot commited" if you are 100% certain you are beat in any situation.

[xTopdogx]

i would call, see an overcard on the flop fold, if not push.

But i mean for this case, if ur calling 12k, and the next max bet would be 8k, just raise all in preflop and get outdrawn [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[soxfan70]

I don't think calling is an option at all - It's either push or fold, and having said that, I think you have to push here. If you flat call and see an A or K on the flop and then fold, you're leaving yourself with less than 3 BB's. Folding Q's preflop at this point is awfully tight in my opinion. If it's any consolation - I was on the complete opposite end of this race at a big tourney at Foxwoods last month and the Q's held up [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[soxfan70]

I see your point here, but do you think he's gonna muck for another $8K after the flop? for a $30k pot?