Should this play be made?

[TOmCowley]

I'd be happy to go in on the second-best hand (currently) and a monster draw if I were a favorite to get there, or had a real chance to fold better hands. You have to be, or you're just giving away money. I just don't see this situation as one of those.

Calling $1.50 to make a pot of $6 total gives you 3:1 to improve on the next card (you're 5:1 to flush it), and it's safe to assume you'll get paid enough to make up for those odds. If you miss and he underbets the pot again, you still might even have odds to call the turn. If you still have money left and miss the river and he bets again, you can fold and you're out for less. I think you can stack AK/AA/KK/QQ here most of the time if you make the flush, and if you miss, you're not losing all your money when you don't get there.

[damn_river]

I bet $11.35 and stood to gain $22.55, if called by one player. If called by both players, I stood to gain $33.

Assuming I wasn't winning the hand and was called:
If i just had a flush draw, i would have a 35% chance of winning.
If i have a flush draw and the queen or ace as outs, i would have about 45% chance of winning the hand.
If i have a flush draw and the queen and ace as outs, i would have about 51% chance of winning the hand.

If everyone else folds, i win a pot of $4.50.

First of all, is it that mathematically incorrect to make a play like this one?
Also, if my math is wrong in my analysis of the situation, please correct me.

damnRiver

[fimbulwinter]

you've got to be joking. a 4xBB raise UTG could be 44 at a game of these limits. the guy then leads out for 1/2 pot on a scary flop? do you plan to call and give away your hand or fold a 14 outer?

come on guys, saying this is patently AA/KK is silly. If the stacks were shorter, then i'd push here with just the flush draw. if that's the read than there is no reason to even call the PFR with AQs.

if you really want to overthink this one, the most likely hand held by a good tight player, is AK, which he, if hs is so good, will lay down to a push there.

you guys are seeing monsters, get your money in for sure.

fim

[TOmCowley]

Push isn't much -EV against real hands. I said it wasn't horrible. Folding out trash on 1-2 outers that won't pay you off just doesn't seem worth it. Why would you fold AK on those stacks though? Because I didn't pop you back with AA-QQ preflop, called a big raise with KQ out of position, or lucksacked 666, and was so worried about a redraw that I'd fold out a ton of hands that would pay likely pay me off? Even against the best draw, JcTc, he'd have pot odds to call. AK would have to be seeing ghosts to lay that down at those sizes.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
are you guys joking? make this play every time and twice on Sunday. you've got a 5+9 out monster nut draw and folding equity; you'd be a moron not to make this bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100%. I am in shock reading some of these replies...

[BK_]

if you dont push now, youll find yourself in a crappy situation the turn if you miss.

[TOmCowley]

If you push against AA/AK and get called, then you're +0.04 EV. If you push against KK/QQ and get called, you're -3.34 EV. If you push against lesser hands, they'll almost definitely fold.

So, if we compare two lines, push the flop, and check-call all the way, improved or not (or push the river if you aren't in already and you've improved). The second line isn't even amazing, but it still has to be better than pushing the flop.

1) If you end up check-calling all in, and losing to one of the big 4, well, that's identical to pushing the flop and losing. You have to assume the guy is going to shut down a set, AA, or TPTK for this to be different and that just isn't true at low-micro limit.

2) If you flat call, he may fire again with an unimproved JJ/TT trying to push you off a pure draw. Since you're going to call no matter what, that would be more money thatn an underpair would give you if you pushed. Even if he doesn't, you're winning anyway (he's drawing to 1 or 2 outs), so it's no big loss. You give the villian a chance to bluff a hopeless hand that we would have definitely folded to the push, and if he checks behind on the turn, you can bet $1-$2 and maybe get called out of curiosity.

3) You might get an overcall from BB with relative trash (a 3-4 outer, not counting what flushes you, and if he makes a hand that flushes you, well, that's amazing)

1 is a wash, 2 and 3 are relatively +EV compared to the push. What's wrong with my logic? Saying "it's an easy push" or saying "get it in when you're ahead" when you're not ahead doesn't help me or anybody else.

[BK_]

you forgot about the fact that getting top pair to fold here is very +EV.

if you call, miss the turn, and are faced with a turn bet that wont give you odds to continue drawing, what then? thats a -EV situation. plus when you hit your hand on the turn and he just has a marginal top pair, he may fold to further action. so you dont even have big implied odds if you hit your hand on the turn. basically the turn will suck if you flat call, so you have to think ahead and if possible come up with another option. it just so happens that pushing is a great alternative.

pushing allows you to avoid the bad turn situation (due to short stack sizes) and also allows you to get EV boosting fold equity out of his most likely hand. the last two fators you listed that favor calling down only result in very small advantages. and the chances that he continues to put more money into the pot after you call with jj/1010 is very small

[TOmCowley]

I absolutely agree that if his range of UTG raising hands includes garbage like blackjack 20s or Kx20s (KJ, KT, etc), then pushing is correct because you do have folding equity against those and getting them to fold is an accomplishment. I'd said earlier that if it were a button raise, that pushing is definitely right for that reason. I guess I was just giving him credit for too tight a range of hands, and that range was only composed of stuff that was likely to pay you off and stuff that was safe to "slowplay' against, which distorted the lines I was looking at. With KJ/KT in his range, get it in there.