how much to bluff here

knifeandfork · #1 12-10-2004, 06:59 AM

.25/.50 live nlhe 7 handed
villain has ~70.00 i have ~100.00 utg straddles $1. villain is utg +1 calls he is a tad loose and a tad aggressive. utg is loose likes to chase but can fold and switches form aggessive to passive depending ( i guess) on how much he is stuck/up.
after utg +1 calls folded to me on the button i raise to $4 with AKo blinds fold straddler folds and utg+1 calls
flop is
QJ4r
villain bets 2.00 which means from him a weak draw or second pair about 90% of the time. i decide to raise hoping to take the pot later so i bump to 5.00 he calls.
turn is 7 putting a second heart up he checks, i bet 6.00. he says how much are you milking me for? and calls

now if i wasnt sure before im 95% sure he has a jack with a decent kicker J9-AJ. river is an offsuit 9 how much do i bet here to induce a fold? i dont trust my read enough to push (or over bet the pot) and betting the pot in this game would be perceived as a "huge" bet? thanks in advance for your responses.
jason

creedofhubris · #2 12-10-2004, 08:48 AM

Your bets and raises so far have been way too small. A proper raise, as you well know, would've been to something like the pot.

If you want to bluff the river, at least $15-20 is called for.

I don't think he's folding though.

knifeandfork · #3 12-10-2004, 11:59 AM

yeah i bet 15, and on the flop i kind of actually wanted him to stay as i thought i had a very good idea of where he was at, the turn bet should have been more, to increase the likely effectiveness of the river bet. he must have had me equally well read as he would normally fold 2nd pair here i think and he also KJ. not much of a post i guess, just sorted it out in the ol noggin. thanks again for the response.

creedofhubris · #4 12-10-2004, 08:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
yeah i bet 15, and on the flop i kind of actually wanted him to stay as i thought i had a very good idea of where he was at, the turn bet should have been more, to increase the likely effectiveness of the river bet. he must have had me equally well read as he would normally fold 2nd pair here i think and he also KJ. not much of a post i guess, just sorted it out in the ol noggin. thanks again for the response.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a decent draw here. (any jack gives you the nuts, ace or king may be good.) So your play is fine (raise the flop a little) if you follow it up with a big turn bluff/big turn bet if you hit a hand, or a check on the turn and check/fold the river if turn and river are blank.